187
FXUS63 KDDC 181652
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1152 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong warming trend will continue through the weekend, with
  afternoon temperatures well into the 90s.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and
  evening. Some storms are expected to be severe with large
  hail and damaging winds.

- Cooler air is expected by midweek next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

A clear and quiet night across SW KS, as high pressure ridging
builds aggressively aloft with rising heights and strong
subsidence. A light SWly downslope breeze will develop through
sunrise, and coupled with a much warmer lower atmosphere, all
locations will easily remain in the 50s through sunrise
Saturday.

The warming trend that began Friday will continue Saturday. The
entire lower troposphere will continue to warm, with 500 mb
heights climbing over 580 dm this afternoon, and 850 mb
temperatures warming 3-4C over Friday. Working against the
warming trend will be a dry cold frontal passage through
Saturday, with surface winds taking on a northeast component
and removing any downslope contributions by afternoon. Despite
this, the strong warming will support afternoon temperatures in
the upper 80s north to the lower 90s south. Some modest
instability (CAPE of 1-2k) is noted mainly southeast of DDC
Saturday afternoon, as temperatures in the lower 90s combine
with dewpoints in the lower 50s. While some high based cumulus
buildups with virga/spotty rain are possible, many CAMs are
resistent to developing any convection at all without a trigger
in a subsident environment. As such, forecast for Saturday
remains dry (pops < 15%).

The process of warm/moist advection will kick into high gear
Saturday night, with elevated southeast winds and increasing
dewpoints. Elevated convection associated with this process is
expected to remain north of the DDC CWA, so reduced/eliminated
pops for Saturday night/early Sunday. A mild Sunday morning is
expected, with many locations remaining at or above 60 thruogh
sunrise Sunday.

The threat of severe weather appears to be increasing for Kansas
Sunday afternoon/evening. A pronounced dryline is expected to
tighten up along the US 83/283 corridors by 5-7 pm, with an
unstable, moist and volatile warm sector ahead of this dryline,
across the eastern one half of SW KS. 00z NAM is forecasting
CAPE on the order of 4000 J/kg across eastern zones 4 pm
Sunday. As is often the case as convective events approach,
model guidance is trending westward with dryline placement and
convective initiation. 00z CAMs are showing a clear trend of
initiating west of DDC Sunday afternoon, and this trend cannot
be ignored. Shortwave timing still appears favorably timed with
the diurnal heating cycle, and any thunderstorms in the expected
warm sector will find a CAPE/shear combination clearly
supportive of supercells. Concern remains about the strength of
the EML/capping inversion, but 00z NAM/GFS have trended 700 mb
temperatures down a notch to the 11-12C range, which should be
breakable, given 1) strong surface heating into the 90s and
2) strong dryline convergence. Given the current trends, and
the fact that we are entering the peak of our climatological
severe season, agree with SPC assessment of increasing severe
probability to the enhanced category. Large hail (1-2 inch
diameter) will be the primary threat initially, with damaging
winds becoming likely as supercells congeal and grow upscale
(probably as they exit into Wichita`s CWA around midnight).
Damaging winds in excess of 70 mph are possible across eastern
zones if the strong trend of upscale growth/cold pool expansion
shown on CAMs verifies. High end hail/tornado potential exists
for any supercell that can remain discrete and interact with the
low level jet Sunday evening (most likely southeast of Dodge
City), but the discrete supercell window may be brief. Given the
trends, increased pops to the chance/likely category Sunday
afternoon and evening for the eastern 2/3 of zones, and also
mentioned severe wording in the grids and forecast products.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

No cold air advection is expected behind Sunday`s shortwave,
with another hot afternoon expected Monday. A weak wind
shift/cold frontal boundary will sag southward through the day,
and the hottest temperatures are expected adjacent to Oklahoma
ahead of the boundary Monday afternoon. The favored Red Hills
through Barber county continue with 00z GEFS highest probability
of exceeding 100 degrees, and highs in the upper 90s are
forecast for these zones. A new surface cyclone is forecast to
develop over southeast Colorado 7 pm Monday, and models show
strong instability in the afternoon with CAPE > 2000 J/kg.
Models forecast warm 700 mb temperatures in the 11-12C range,
and it is doubtful the expected weak wind shift line would offer
enough of a trigger to initiate convection through the cap. NBM
is dry daylight Monday and this forecast was accepted.

Model consensus places a strong closed 557 dm low over western
Wyoming 7 am Tuesday. This will strengthen midlevel SWly flow
over SW KS, and the associated surface low will track northeast
to near Hays sunrise Tuesday. Noticeably cooler and drier air
will flow into SW KS Tuesday behind the associated cold front on
elevated northwest winds. This synoptic evolution is expected to
dryslot SW KS, pushing moisture and instability out of the
region. The cooler air is forecast to be reinforced Wednesday,
with the cold front being shoved south well into West Texas.
NBM has come into agreement with the ensembles and 00z MEX with
Wednesday being the coolest day next week, with lows in the 40s
and afternoon temperatures reduced to the 70s. As such, high
confidence that Wednesday will be dry, but in late May, return
flow of Gulf of Mexico moisture is usually quick and easy.
Indeed, south winds and moisture advection return Thursday, with
00z ECMWF and several EPS ensemble members suggesting warm air
advection driven rainfall is possible Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period.
Winds will be breezy this afternoon as a cold front slowly moves
through western Kansas with wind speeds around 10-20 kts and
gusts up to 30 kts. Tonight a band of showers and storms will
move out of eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas and could be
close to HYS and GCK airports between 07-10Z. During the day on
Sunday winds will increase ahead of a dryline out of the south
at 20-25 kts sustained and over 30 kt gusts as we approach
17-18Z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner