Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 220031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Mar 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a
C8.7/Sn flare at 21/1132 UTC from Region 3615 (S12E25,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). The region continued to gradually grow over the
past two hours. Newly numbered Regions 3619 (N17E61, Cao/beta) and 3618
(S20W62, Dao/beta) gradually developed. The remaining spots were either
stable or in decay.

Other activity included two filament eruptions in the vicinity of Region
3614 (N17E18, Dsc/beta) beginning after ~21/1730 UTC. An additional
filament eruption was observed from the SW quadrant beginning after
~21/1830 UTC. Further coronagraph imagery is need to analyze and model
these events for Earth-directed components.

.Forecast...
Low solar activity levels are expected to continue, with a chance of
M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) 21-23 Mar due primarily to the
flare potential of Region 3615.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background and the greater
than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux and greater than 10 MeV proton flux
are expected to remaining below alert threshold over the next three
days.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated the anticipated arrival of a CME that
left the sun on 17 Mar. At approximately 21/0225 UTC total field values
abruptly increased to 14-15 nT. The Bz component rotated southward to a
maximum of -12 nT, with a couple periods of prolonged southward Bz
observed after 21/1115 UTC and 21/1520 UTC.

.Forecast...
CME influences are expected to weaken over the course of 22 Mar with a
return to a more ambient, background like solar wind environment on 23
Mar.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels during
the latter half of the day.

.Forecast...
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected for 22 Mar are the CME passes
Earth. A return to a nominal, quiet geomagnetic environment is expected
by 23 Mar. Active conditions are likely with an anticipated CIR ahead of
a negative polarity CH HSS on 24 Mar.


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