748
FXUS63 KDLH 012330
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
630 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light precipitation is expected through tomorrow afternoon with
  total QPF amounts remaining under 0.2

- Cooler and drier conditions through midweek

- Active pattern returns to our region late week and into the
 weekend with multiple chances for precipitation

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Short Term:

Scattered clouds through this afternoon will become more
widespread across our area as well as increase in coverage as a
shortwave trough drops out of the Canadian Prairies and into the
Northern Plains. This will be the focus of any precipitation
that we see in the coming 24 hours. Initially a warm front will
move through the area this afternoon bringing showers and
drizzle with it as it passes through the area. It appears that
Central Minnesota may not see much precipitation with this
initial round due to a fair bit of dry air closer to the
surface. Conversely, areas east of I-35, and near the border
with Canada have better rain chances due to marginally more
moist lower levels. By late tonight most of the precipitation
from the front will have moved off to the east with scattered
showers near the eastern edges of our CWA. Around daybreak
Tuesday is when our precipitation chances return as the
shortwave finally moves overhead and produces more chances for
rain and maybe some snowflakes on the backend. As the cold front
associated with the shortwave moves North to South early
tomorrow, we will see another bout of precipitation. Initially
the precipitation will remain all rain but during early morning
as strong cold air occurs, we will see temperatures drop into
the mid to upper 30s. With these temperatures we could see a few
flakes in the colder pockets and where we have stronger
convection where evaporative cooling can enhance the cooling
effect. As it stands right now, the Minnesota Arrowhead and
South Shore areas look to have the best chance (50-60%) of
seeing some snowflakes mix-in heading into the afternoon. By
late afternoon, most of the precipitation will have moved out of
our CWA with much cooler temperatures present with highs in the
upper 30s (closer to the lake) to mid 40s (Inland).

Extended Range:

Wednesday will be on the cooler side with highs remaining in the
40s and 50s with persistent NW wind making it feel on the
chillier side. Very dry soundings indicate the return of near-
critical fire weather conditions across far northern Minnesota
and northwestern Wisconsin during the day. This cold, dry spell
will be brief before well see a quick warmup into the upper
50s/lower 60s on Thursday as winds return to a more southerly
component, which will advect some moisture for slightly less dry
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR ceilings have returned to the Northland as cloud cover has
scattered out, and VFR conditions will persist until tonight.
There is a possibility (20-40%) for MVFR fog development
tonight at KDLH/KINL/KHIB and the Minnesota Arrowhead, with the
highest potential at KDLH due to easterly winds off of Lake
Superior. Rain with IFR/MVFR ceilings and visibility moves into
the area from southwest to northeast starting early to mid
Thursday morning, with these conditions continuing through the
end of the TAF period. Winds increase out of the east on
Thursday, with gusts to around 20 knots from late Thursday
morning through the afternoon. KDLH and KBRD could see a few
gusts to 25 knots Thursday afternoon, as well.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Westerly winds continue to weaken this evening, with calmer
conditions expected overnight. Northeast winds strengthen
through the day Thursday, with waves building in response. Peak
gusts up to 25 knots and waves up to 5 to 7 feet could be
possible tomorrow afternoon and evening at the head of the lake.
Elsewhere, expect winds and waves slightly less than that, but
still breezy with gusts largely over 20 knots. Another round of
Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed. Into Friday,
expect winds to turn southwesterly and become very strong
through the day Friday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens/KP
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Rothstein/Levens