Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 240637
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...Synopsis...
Rapid surface cyclone intensification should occur across the Plains
states as a mid-level trough deepens while ejecting into the central
CONUS today. In tandem with the strong surface cyclone, a dryline
will rapidly surge across the central and southern High Plains, with
very dry and windy conditions occurring in its wake. Latest guidance
consensus shows 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts
approaching 50 mph) coinciding with 15-25 percent RH during the
afternoon behind the dryline. Given the loading of drying fine fuels
across the central and southern High Plains, dangerous
wildfire-spread conditions will manifest sometime during the late
morning and persist into the early evening hours. As such,
"high-end" Critical fire weather highlights have been maintained.

The potential for fire ignitions will also be exacerbated by the
possibility of dry thunderstorms (albeit sparse in coverage) across
portions of the central and southern High Plains, where isolated dry
thunderstorm highlights have been introduced. Forecast soundings
from multiple guidance members show classic inverted-v soundings
amid strong tropospheric flow, which will be ideal for high-based,
fast-moving thunderstorms atop loaded fine fuels, should updraft
development become robust and persistent.

..Squitieri.. 03/24/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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