Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS01 KWNS 211628
SWODY1
SPC AC 211626

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail in the inch
to inch-and-a-half range, and a few gusts to severe levels, are
possible across parts of northern and central Texas this
afternoon/evening.

...Northern and central Texas to southwestern Louisiana...
Widespread morning convection, and associated/expansive low cloud
cover, persists per recent radar and visible satellite imagery
across roughly the eastern half of Texas.  Farther to the
west/northwest, from the Big Country southward toward the Concho
Valley, and areas west, lack of cloud cover will permit diurnal
heating, which -- given 50s dewpoints -- will contribute to modest
(500 to 1000 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE this afternoon.

As ascent associated with the upper disturbance currently moving
across eastern New Mexico spreads into Texas, expect storms to
develop -- initially cellularly but then possibly growing upscale
into eastward-moving bands.  Small hail appears likely, but the
low-topped nature of the storms, the rather limited CAPE, and
somewhat marginal deep-layer shear suggests that more intense,
rotating updrafts may be somewhat difficult to be sustained.
Therefore, coverage of severe-caliber hail (likely limited to the
inch to inch-and-a-half range) should remain isolated.  As such,
will maintain only MRGL/5% risk at this time.  A few stronger wind
gusts will also be possible, but likewise it appears that 5%
probability is appropriate per current expectations.

Storms will spread eastward across eastern Texas overnight, and
eventually into southwestern Louisiana, but will be moving into
areas where widespread convection will have occurred, which should
limit any more appreciable severe potential.

..Goss/Weinman.. 03/21/2024

$$


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