Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS02 KWNS 270546
SWODY2
SPC AC 270545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A southern-stream upper trough will move from the Southeast to the
western Atlantic on Thursday. A weak surface low near the NC/SC
Coast will likewise develop east-northeastward over the Gulf Stream
through the day, while a trailing cold front sweeps southeastward
across the FL Peninsula and the Keys. Limited low-level convergence
along this front should keep any thunderstorm potential quite
isolated over land. While the environment across south FL appears
conditionally favorable for organized thunderstorms, the overall
severe potential still appears too low to add any severe
probabilities. Generally elevated thunderstorms may also occur
across parts of coastal NC/SC through early Thursday afternoon in a
modest low-level warm advection regime, as pronounced forcing for
ascent associated with the upper trough overlaps weak MUCAPE.

Occasional lightning flashes may also occur Thursday across parts of
both the coastal and interior Northwest, as well as northern
California and the northern Rockies/Great Basin. An upper trough is
forecast to move eastward across these areas through the period,
with cold mid-level temperatures (around -20 to -30C at 500 mb)
aiding in weak destabilization. Limited moisture and instability are
expected to preclude severe thunderstorms across these areas.

..Gleason.. 03/27/2024

$$


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