561
AXPZ20 KNHC 102158 AAA
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri May 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N76.5W to 11.5N96W to 09N107W.
The ITCZ continues from 09N107W to 05N127W to beyond 08.5N140W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06.5N to
12.5N between 85W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04.5N to 07N between 125W and 129W, and from 06.5N to
13.5N W of 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The NE Pacific ridge is centered well NW of the area and extends
southward into the tropical northeastern Pacific, yielding a
weak pressure gradient across the regional waters. Gentle to
moderate NW to N winds prevail across the Baja California
offshore waters, and extend southward to the Revillagigedo
Islands. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters
off Mexico as well as inside the Gulf of California. Recent
satellite altimeter data shows seas remain in the 6-8 ft range
offshore Baja California, dominated by NW swell. Elsewhere over
the open waters off Mexico, seas are in the 4-6 ft range in SW
swell. In the Gulf of California, seas of 1-3 ft are noted,
except to 4 ft in SW swell across the entrance.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate northwesterly winds will
prevail off the Baja California waters through the middle of
next week, with small areas of fresh winds developing along the
coasts during the late afternoon and evening hours through Sat.
Northwest swell moving through the regional waters will maintain
seas to 8 ft through early Sat before gradually subsiding to 6 ft
or less through early next week. Gentle to locally moderate
winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere across the open
offshore waters of Mexico through the middle of next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Weak low pressure prevails across the northeastern Tropical
Pacific and the adjacent western Caribbean today. This pattern is
producing gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds south of the
monsoon trough, roughly along 09N-10N, with light to gentle
winds N of the monsoon trough. Recent satellite altimeter data
shows that southerly swell is producing seas in the 5-6 ft range
between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands, and 3-5 ft
elsewhere.

Santa Maria and Fuego Volcanoes in Guatemala have been emitting
narrow streams of ash throughout the day, which has traveled
west and southwestward to near the Pacific coasts of
southwestern Guatemala. This ash may move into the nearshore
coastal waters across this area this evening and continue to
disperse.

For the forecast, little change in the overall pattern is
expected for the next several days. Expect gentle to moderate
S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough through early next
week. New southerly swell moving into the regional waters today
will build seas to 6 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands through
Sun. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail with moderate
seas of 6 ft or less.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from high pressure of 1030 mb near 44N138W
southward into the tropical eastern Pacific waters. The pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trades N of the
ITCZ to near 17N and W of 120W. Seas over this area are in the
6-8 ft range in NW swell. Gentle to locally moderate winds are
elsewhere N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, with seas in the 5-7
ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are found S of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough, with seas of 5-7 ft in mixed SW and SE swell.

For the forecast, the high pressure well N of the region will
drift westward and weaken through Sun. This will maintain moderate
trade winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, in the trade wind zone N of the
ITCZ to near 20N and W of 120W through Sun, before seas subside
slightly through early next week. NW swell, producing seas to 7
ft, dominates the waters N of 12N and W of 115W today, and will
gradually subside to less than 7 ft Sat, then to 6 ft or less
Mon through early next week.

$$
Stripling