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000
FXUS64 KEWX 240721
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
221 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Mostly cloudy skies are prevailing across much of South-Central
Texas overnight as low-level moisture continues to stream into the
area within southerly flow. With the increase in moisture and low
cloud cover, temperatures are remaining warm overnight with
temperatures in the upper 60s in the Hill Country to near 70
elsewhere. The low-level clouds should hold on for most of the day
with southerly winds beginning to increase in speed today with 10-15
mph expected this afternoon with higher gusts. Highs today will top
out in the lower 80s for much of the area with some lower 90s out
west. The dryline today is expected to remain west of our area into
West Texas and any convection associated with this feature would
likely remain well to our north and west and this is the favored
area in the new Day 1 outlook from SPC.

Dewpoints will remain elevated tonight and lows will likely be back
well above normal in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Went a degree
or two above NBM guidance based on persistence and trends from
tonight. In addition, can`t rule out some patchy fog once again for
the eastern counties and will mention that in the forecast. For
tomorrow, most if not all the area will remain dry once again. The
dryline may be slightly closer to Val Verde County in comparison to
today as a weak disturbance approaches the area. This could kick off
some isolated showers and storms, but most of this activity is
expected to be to our north once again in closer proximity to the
base of the upper trough. There is a small (about 10%) chance of an
isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly in the Edwards Plateau
tomorrow afternoon, but will not mention anything in the official
forecast for now. Will see if more of the high-res models start to
latch onto any convective initiation in our area before mentioning
it in the forecast. Otherwise, high temperatures tomorrow will be in
the lower 80s to lower 90s across the area once again with breezy
southerly flow persisting at the surface.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

An upper level low over the Four Corners Thursday will lift northeast
into the central Plains on Friday. Lee side cyclogenesis takes place
Thursday afternoon, with the surface low also lifting northeast
through the Plains Friday and into the upper Midwest Friday night.
The tail end of the weak upper level forcing may generate isolated
convection across the Trans Pecos, along the dryline, Thursday
afternoon, which could potentially make it into the southern Edwards
Plateau and far northern Hill Country Thursday night. An isolated
severe storm or two can`t be ruled out across portions of Val Verde
and Edwards Counties, where a Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms
is in place. Farther east Thursday night through Friday morning,
isolated showers will be possible beneath a strong cap.

As the aforementioned surface low lifts northeast the dryline moves
farther east into the southern Edwards Plateau and west-central Texas
Friday afternoon. At question is the cap and amount of forcing, but
ahead of it we could have a potential for a few strong to severe
storms Friday afternoon and evening across portions of mainly the
Hill Country into central Texas, where the cap is weakest.

Another upper level low is forecast to dig into the Four Corners
Friday night and take a similar track northeast over the weekend as
the first system. After the dryline retreats back west Friday night,
it`s forecast to move back east into the southern Edwards Plateau,
northern Hill Country, and central Texas Saturday afternoon and
evening. Forecast soundings indicate the cap may completely eroded
through these areas allowing for a greater potential for storms to
develop Saturday afternoon and evening, along with a risk for a few
strong to severe storms. The storms could weaken/decay as they move
east into the I-35 corridor late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
We will watch model trends closely and refine the Friday through
Sunday forecast further of the next several days.

Otherwise warm, humid, and breezy conditions will prevail Friday
through the weekend east of the dryline, and hot conditions west of
it. Forecast high temperatures along the Rio Grande are forecast to
reach the upper 90s to 100-102, where dry air is in place west of the
dryline. The hot temperatures and low humidity in the afternoons
could lead to elevated fire weather conditions. Wind speeds should be
weaker across the region than farther east.

The forecast early next week is low confidence. There is a large
spread in the global models and their ensembles with how far south a
cold front makes it and convective potential.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

MVFR ceilings are in place this evening across the I35 sites with
bases near 1.2-2.5kft. Should see MVFR continue through the night and
spread into DRT with IFR then possible for the I35 sites. There is a
chance for some patchy visibility restrictions as well overnight into
tomorrow morning. Southerly winds will be breezy tomorrow as VFR
returns by the mid afternoon hours. Another round of MVFR ceilings
can be expected tomorrow night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              83  70  85  70 /  10   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  83  69  84  70 /  10   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     84  70  87  70 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            81  69  82  69 /  10   0  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           93  73  92  73 /   0   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        82  69  83  69 /  10   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             86  70  89  69 /  10   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        83  69  84  70 /  10   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   84  70  83  72 /  10   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       84  71  86  71 /  10   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           85  71  87  72 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...76
Aviation...29