Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
000
FXUS62 KFFC 191857
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
257 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Surface boundary currently stretches from the eastern Great Lakes
back through NW GA. This boundary will slowly sag southward
tonight and stall over central portions of the state through the
remainder of the short term period. Nearly zonal flow in the mid
levels will continue through the period also.
Hi-res convective models have struggled with convection over the
last few days and today is no exception. The models have been
fairly consistent with convective initiation timing, but coverage
of storms has been an issue. Earlier runs of the ARW looked better
in terms of storm coverage than the HRRR. Earlier convection east
central AL produced an outflow boundary. Convection would likely
fire in and around the outflow boundary this afternoon and
evening. Do think once convection fires, it could be more
organized than the high res models are indicating. Strong storms
are definitely possible, with isolated severe thunderstorms also
possible. The primary severe hazards would be large hail and
damaging wind gusts.
Early tomorrow looks mostly dry. Some isold/scat storms are
possible along the old frontal boundary. But, precipitation should
become more organized later in the afternoon and into the
overnight hours as a strong shortwave moves east in the mid level
flow. The atmosphere will once again be favorable for strong/isold
severe storms capable of producing hail and gusty winds.
NListemaa
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Sunday is expected to bring scattered to widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms as a shortwave trough kicks through. PWAT
is progged to be 1.0-1.5 inches (the daily maximum per sounding
climatology is ~1.3 inches). The overnight and morning runs of the
SREF have depicted less instability across central Georgia with
200-800 J/kg of SBCAPE generally along and south of a line from
Columbus to Macon to Sandersville. Surface-to-500-mb bulk shear of
45-55 kts, along with the marginal instability, suggest the
possibility of a few strong storms with gusty to damaging winds.
SPC currently has just a General Thunder risk across this area.
Cooler, more stable air will be in place across the rest of the
forecast area, characterized by lows in the upper 40s to mid-50s
and highs in the mid-50s to mid-60s. The QPF between Saturday and
Sunday ranges from 0.5" to 0.8".
The shortwave trough is progged to move east of the forecast area
on Monday with high pressure in tow. Dry conditions will prevail
through Thursday thanks to high pressure. A relatively cooler/mild
start to the week will give way to gradually warming conditions.
Highs will be in the lower 70s to lower 80s Wednesday and Thursday.
Martin
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Isold thunder possible in and around ATL this afternoon. Have
added a tempo group for this afternoon/evening. Winds will remain
on the west side. Some patchy few/sct MVFR possible towards 12Z,
higher potential for bkn if it actually rains at ATL. Sct-bkn cu
around 035-050 tomorrow afternoon with any widespread precip after
00Z Sun.
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low-med confidence for tsra at ATL this afternoon. High confidence
remaining elements.
NListemaa
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 63 83 53 59 / 20 20 60 90
Atlanta 63 78 54 58 / 20 20 70 80
Blairsville 56 70 46 55 / 20 10 50 70
Cartersville 58 72 47 57 / 20 10 60 80
Columbus 66 83 58 64 / 10 40 70 80
Gainesville 62 79 53 57 / 20 20 60 80
Macon 66 86 58 66 / 20 40 50 90
Rome 60 71 49 59 / 20 10 50 70
Peachtree City 63 80 52 59 / 20 20 70 90
Vidalia 68 88 65 74 / 10 40 40 80
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...NListemaa