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000
FXUS63 KFGF 231158
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
658 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for widespread hazardous weather through
  Monday is low (less than 10%).

- Watching dew points and relative humidity values for potential
  near critical fire weather conditions Wednesday.

- Increased rain chances Friday into Saturday with chance for
  isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 653 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

500 smb low is near Park Rapids moving south-southeast. Spin in
clouds noted and showers are to the west and north of the upper
low from Lake of the Woods to east of Fargo. Last of the spotty
showers are in far SE Manitoba and far northeast ND moving
south. So idea of scattered showers in MN fcst area and the RRV
is good with trends indicating them moving out of our forecast
area 16-17z or so. Cloud cover with this is far less extensive
than thought with plenty of clearing holes in cloud cover in E
ND/RRV with thicker cloud cover confined to around the upper low
center. Overall trends of the fcst are good. We are seeing the
NNW winds increase as anticipated within the RRV and E ND with
gusts to 25 kts as pressure rises move into the valley.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

at 08z 500 mb low is located near Grand Forks with spin on radar
noted with showers over the Grand Forks area. This will continue
to move east-southeast thru the early morning hours with
lingering showers spreading more into Minnesota and then exiting
the forecast area by 16z. The question arises is winds this
morning. As upper level low moves away there is a period of NNW
winds that could gust to 35 kts within the Red River valley with
mixed layer up to around 925 mb early this morning rise to 870
mb by 17z. By then the winds aloft do diminish. Also in question
is sky cover/types of clouds. Havent seen low clouds form yet
but never discount what happens by 12z. So going with idea of
mostly cloudy this morning most areas then clearing working
southeast thru the aftn. Highs today with late day sun reaching
the low-mid 50s. HRRR did well with sfc temps on Monday and
looks good today. They also are very near NBM 4.1 temps used in
the fcst.

Winds diminish overnight as high pressure ridge moves, with
center of high moving southeast thru far NW Ontario. Winds will
be northeast tonight then turn south-southeast on Wednesday as
high moves farther east. Surface gradient initially isnt that
tight so not expecting a big jump in wind speeds Wednedsday. Dry
airmass in place due to high pressure to our north/east, though
driest of dew pts more favored over NE MN. Warming Wednesday
with plenty of sun, with RH values dropping in to the mid 20s
across the area. Winds to be near 10 kts. So borderline near
critical fire weather day Wednesday based on RH values.

A warm Thursday as south winds ramp up into the 20-30 mph range
with higher gusts.  Highs 60s to mid 70s.

Thereafter an unsettled pattern starts as several 500 mb short
waves and surface lows will move northeast from the central
Rockies toward Minnesota. First wave brings chances for rain
into the area Thursday overnight but the highest chances (60-80
percent from northwest to southeast across the area) are Friday
afternoon thru Saturday morning. WPC rain amounts show 0.75
average Baudette to Grand Forks to Jamestown and areas
southeast. NBM 4.1 indicates similar amounts with probs for more
than 0.50 inch at 60-80 percent in the same area. Instability
looks weak as surface low is more southeast MN and instability
focused south of there Friday. But embedded t-storm is possible
so will maintain some mention Friday.

Next wave arrrives Sun aftn-Monday but trends are weaker and a
bit farther southeast with this system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 653 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

The widespread MVFR cloud deck that the short term models had
advertised is not happening. There is some MVFR ceilings since
10z that formed right near the upper low center including
Bemidji, Detroit Lakes, Fosston, Park Rapids but otherwise into
the RRV cloud ceilings are at or above 4000 ft agl. Gusty NNW
winds 25-30 kts esp in the RRV this morning diminishing slowly
this aftn but no noticeable decrease probably not til closer to
22/00z. Clear with light wind tonight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle