Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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388 FXUS63 KFGF 131740 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1240 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy smoke remains in place across the area through much of the day ahead of our next system that moves into the region tonight into Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Water vapor imagery indicates an upper wave propagating through the zonal flow aloft north of the Canadian border across southern Manitoba, with satellite/radar imagery showing the associated clouds/precipitation. This activity/forcing is propagating toward northwest Minnesota, although most guidance indicates this activity will dissipate as it moves into a drier airmass. At any rate, will monitor this activity - but for now probability for measurable rain from this activity south of the international border today is less than 10%. UPDATE Issued at 944 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Brief ridging propagating across the region today will lead to minimal impacts. Satellite imagery indicates some areas of smoke aloft continuing to funnel into the region from the north, but HRRR smoke forecast indicates this smoke will remain more aloft than yesterday - will monitor though. UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Coldest temperatures this morning are near Devils Lake and generally along the International Border, where low 30s have been observed. A few cold spots have been noted in northwest Minnesota as well, with temps generally in the middle 30s. Lingering surface smoke is bringing visibility down to 4 miles around Fergus Falls and Wadena, with mid to upper level smoke elsewhere not impacting visibility. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 354 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 An active pattern prevails through much of this week as several shortwaves traverse the region. Upper flow from 500mb up to 300mb remains rather progressive, with a substantially more amplified pattern from 500mb down to 700mb. For today, dry air remains in place across the area, along with low relative humidity. RH values could fall into the lower 20 percent range once more in some areas; however, winds will be relatively light, generally in the range of 7 to 12 mph. A slow moving shortwave will bring rain chances into the region starting early Tuesday, then persist through the day on Wednesday before tapering off Thursday. A good portion of the area has a 30 percent chance to see 0.50 inch of rain from this first system. An isolated thunderstorm is possible; however, there is little, if any, support for strong storms. A second system is being highlighted by ensemble clusters starting late Thursday. The pattern is very similar, as a weak H7 trough traverses the area. This system has a 20 percent chance of bringing 0.50 inch of rain to portions of the region, with low confidence in the exact location. A few thunderstorms are possible, with the best chances along the ND/SD border. Heading into the weekend, another upper low is showing up in several sources of guidance; however, confidence is low as ensemble members show a good bit of disagreement. In general, the pattern remains somewhat close to what we are expecting through much of next week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms expected. For the weekend, there seems to be a more favorable setup for perhaps a stronger storm or two. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites through the period. Surface smoke is not expected, although mid-level smoke remains into at least this evening. Winds will remain light through the period, graduallky becoming east on Tuesday. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TG DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...TG