255
FXUS65 KFGZ 031732
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1032 AM MST Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions are expected today with breezy
afternoon winds. Winds increase on Saturday, peaking on Sunday, and
remaining gusty through the start of the week. Temperatures will dip
a bit on Sunday and Monday but warm back up for the middle of the
week. A few showers may cross the Kaibab Plateau on Sunday.
Otherwise, it looks pretty dry through the next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Another warm, mostly dry and breezy day is in store for
today. A few more high clouds will be noted across northern
Arizona throughout the afternoon, but that will be the biggest
change from yesterday to today. A strong trough is still looking
to dip across the region over the weekend, increasing winds both
Saturday and even more so on Sunday. We`ll be looking at a wind-
related product for much of our CWA for Sunday, but decisions on
that will be decided with the afternoon forecast package. For now,
the previous forecast remains largely on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /327 AM MST/...Warm and dry conditions will continue for today before
we start to see the effects of a deep upper low tracking towards the
Great Basin. Seasonably warm temperatures across the region with
southwest winds gusting up to 20-25 mph through the afternoon.

A deep upper level low will track across the Pacific northwest and
digs southward into the Great Basin by late Saturday. Ahead of this
low we will see winds start to increase with gusts on Saturday
around 25-35 mph. Conditions will remain dry on Saturday with near-
seasonable temperatures.

As we move into Sunday, the low will be crossing the Great Basin
and should pass to the north of our area. Even though this low has
limited moisture associated with it by the time it reaches our
area, there may be enough moisture to squeeze out a few showers
across the Kaibab Plateau on Sunday and possible over the higher
elevations of the Chuska Mountains. Most areas will remain dry as
the low moves through. Temperatures take a dip on Sunday, falling
around 5-10 degrees below normal.

The main impacts from this low will be the winds. The gradient
tightens up quite a bit and there is the potential for winds to gust
around 40-50 mph, possibly higher to the east of Flagstaff. As far
as headlines go, winds may remain just below advisory levels on
Saturday but Sunday looks like it will be more widespread advisory
level winds with the potential for some spots to hit warning
criteria. Will hold off on any headlines with this package and let
let the next shift get a better handle on where the strongest winds
may occur. Stay tuned for updates on the winds!

With the strong winds and dry conditions, it will raise the
potential for near critical fire weather concerns. The most likely
areas will be across northeastern Arizona where RH values will drop
below 15% during Sunday afternoon. The limiting factor may be the
fuels but definitely something else to keep our eyes on.

As the low passes to the north and east, we should see better
conditions return through the week. Winds will remain breezy on
Monday with cooler temperatures still hanging around the region.
Temperatures will moderate and warm slightly as we go through the
week with winds dropping off and just the typical afternoon breezes
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 03/18Z through Saturday 04/18Z...Expect VFR
conditions with scattered mid-level clouds. Winds will be out of
the west-southwest at 10-20 kts until 02Z, becoming light and
variable through most of Saturday morning.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 04/18Z through Monday 06/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions will persist but with increasing clouds Saturday night
into Sunday. Southwest winds at 25-30 kts on Saturday
strengthening to sustained at 25-35 kts gusting to 40-55 kts on
Sunday. Minor to moderate turbulence is likely on Sunday. Periods
of MVFR visibility in blowing dust are likely from KINW-KSJN-KRQE
northward for Sunday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Mild and dry conditions persist
for today and Saturday with high temperatures roughly 5 degrees
above average and widespread minimum humidity of 10 to 20%. An
increasing trend of southwest winds will develop and continue
through Saturday. Expect gusts of 15 to 30 mph for this afternoon,
followed by 25 to 35 mph on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Southwest winds become strong on Sunday
with widespread gusts of 40 to 55 mph. Areas prone to downsloping
winds, including along and directly east of the Mogollon Rim, White
Mountains, and across portions of the Navajo Nation, will experience
even stronger winds of 60+ mph for much of the day. Areas of
critical fire weather conditions are likely on Sunday, especially
across northeast Arizona, where minimum humidity of 15% is forecast.
The winds decrease by Sunday night, remaining breezy 20 to 35 mph
from the west for Monday and Tuesday afternoon`s.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny/Meola
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff