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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 242111
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
211 PM MST Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Slightly cooler and windy conditions today will give way
to cooler and unsettled conditions for the second half of the week.
Chance for showers arrive Thursday and again by late Friday and into
Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Low pressure off the Pacific coast is upping the
winds this afternoon and increasing moisture in the SW. This can
be noted with the growing cumulus cloud deck over the Kaibab.
Moisture will continue to increase over the coming hours ahead of
the systems arrival.

Tonight into early tomorrow morning, CAMs are in good agreement
that as the low traverses the SW, a band of showers and storms
will develop and move across Yavapai county, heading northeast to
the Mogollon Rim. Because of the agreement, thunderstorm chances
were hand forced upward as larger scale and blended models are not
handling this well.

After tomorrow morning, the remainder of Thursday will feature
more widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity generally
along and north of the Whites/Mogollon Rim, and Kaibab. Still
overall moisture availability remains low with this first system
and most will see a tenth of an inch or less in liquid
precipitation.

Friday will be mostly dry as we briefly get sandwiched between
the departing first system and another trough starts to dive south
into the region. This will keep the winds elevated during the day
and could pose a limited fire weather concern closer to the White
Mountains Region: green-up conditions will largely limit fuels
from being available though.

Friday night into early Saturday morning the trough will traverse
the area, bringing widespread rain chances to the region. Snow
levels still remain elevated, only dipping down to around 7000
feet for a few hours Saturday AM before climbing again. Thus,
accumulating snowfall will be limited to elevations of 8000 feet
and above. As the trough moves east, instability and lingering
moisture will help drive additional showers and storms Saturday
afternoon. Greater coverage and confidence in them occurring will
be along the higher terrain where orographic influence will aid
in development. Greater moisture availability and dynamics with
the second system will help contribute greater precipitation
amounts:
most in Northern Arizona will at least receive a wetting rainfall,
with high confidence in many higher elevation locations
receiving-2 tenths of an inch in liquid precipitation.

After Saturday, zonal flow sets up over the region and
temperatures will be moderating with lighter winds. By Tuesday
next week temperatures will start to run almost 10 degrees above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 24/18Z through Thursday 25/18Z...VFR
conditions will prevail through much of the TAF period, outside of
MVFR conditions near KPAN due to FU/HZ. Similarly, isolated
-SHRA/TSRA looks to increase west to east after 15Z, which could
 cause brief lower ceilings and visibilities. Look for S-SW winds
 10-20 kts, gusting up to 35 kts this afternoon, becoming 10 kts
 or less overnight.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 25/18Z through Saturday 27/18Z...Isolated
SHRA/TSRA will continue through 00Z Thursday, with SW winds 15-25
kts gusting up 40 kts. More showers look to return by 18Z friday
and increase NW to SE through the end of the TAF period. Gusty SW
winds expected Friday afternoon too.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected to begin early Thursday, with drier
conditions forecast overnight. More widespread storms will pick up
late Friday. Look for southwest winds 15-25 mph, gusting 30-40 mph
each afternoon.

Saturday through Monday...Isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms will continue through Saturday, with warmer
and drier weather returning by Sunday. Expect west winds 15-25 mph
on Saturday, west winds 5-15 mph on Sunday and light southwest winds
on Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff