610
FXUS64 KFWD 102254
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
554 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/

While cooler and drier air has invaded the region behind
yesterday`s front, the unstable airmass remains in place aloft.
Elevated convection has fired across Central Texas this evening
as isentropic lift on the 315K surface organized ahead of a
passing shortwave in the fast zonal flow aloft. These scattered
showers and storms are quickly moving eastward and will diminish
in couple hours as the isentropic lift weakens.

Isentropic analysis on the 310-315K surfaces Saturday show another
round of intense lift mainly Saturday afternoon spreading across
North Texas with another shortwave trough. Once again, given the
steep lapse rates and ample moisture aloft, a round of high-based
convection will occur. PoPs were increased over most model
guidance, which often struggles to simulate the convective
potential with these kinds of setups. Those engaged in outdoor
activities Saturday afternoon and evening should be prepared for
interruptions from the threat of nearby lightning and rainfall.
While the severe weather threat should be low, small hail may
occur with the stronger storms.

Otherwise temperatures will be pleasantly cool and dry this
evening with continued north/northeast winds. Lows will range from
the upper 50s and low 60s. Highs tomorrow will be slightly
tempered from the increased clouds/rain in the area during the
afternoon resulting in highs only in the mid 70s across western
North Texas to lower 80s elsewhere.


TR.92

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 317 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024/
Update:
The previous discussion captures next week`s forecast fairly well.
North and Central Texas will continue in an active weather pattern
with spouts of showers and storms every 2-3 days. During the dry
periods, expect temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/Sunday Onward/

Another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms will
materialize for the second half of Mother`s Day weekend and will
continue into Monday to begin the workweek. This will be due to a
deepening upper low and attendant diffuse surface system which
will make eastward progress through the Southern Plains beginning
early Sunday morning. Height falls ahead of this system will
allow more robust southerly flow and northward moisture advection
to occur prior to the arrival of a weak surface cold front and
broad mid-level dynamic ascent. This should culminate in
scattered and mostly disorganized convection beginning Sunday
morning, with coverage increasing through the daytime. Instability
will likely not recover to values supportive of severe weather,
at least not on an organized level. However, a sufficient
parameter space for perhaps a couple of strong storms with mainly
a hail threat could exist, and this would be more likely across
Central Texas where instability should be greatest. In addition,
moderate to heavy rainfall may cause minor flooding issues,
particularly due to already saturated grounds from above average
rainfall over the past several weeks. Localized 24-hour rain
totals of 1-2" are plausible.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue into the daytime
Monday on a more isolated/scattered basis, likely with one final
chance for convective activity along this system`s weak slow-
moving cold front. This boundary will bring slightly drier air to
the region, scouring rain chances to the southeast in the
process. Despite this front`s passage, temperatures on Monday
afternoon will probably be a few degrees warmer than Sunday`s
highs due to less widespread cloud cover and a bit of insolation
returning late in the day. With upper-level shortwave ridging
following on the heels of the departing trough, dry and warmer
weather will prevail on Tuesday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will resume Wednesday and
Thursday next week as yet another strong shortwave deepens over
the Central High Plains. This may bring a more traditional and
favorable setup for severe convection to portions of the area with
active dryline and cold front boundaries to our north and west.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/0Z TAFs/

Elevated convection across Central Texas should diminish during
the next few hours, and will continue to show VCTS and -RA at
KACT through 00:30Z. This activity will remain south of the DFW
area TAF sites. Another round of elevated convection (with bases
near FL100) will move in from the west during the day Saturday.
Due to dry air in the low levels this may result in turbulence
initially, but precipitation should be heavy enough to saturate
and reach the ground in the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates
aloft, some thunderstorms with small hail is also expected. Will
show -RA VCTS for all DFW area TAFs from 21z to 2z. But this
round of activity should be north of KACT. Later shifts likely
will need to adjust timing and coverage of expected convection.

Otherwise north winds at 5-10kt overnight will gradually become
easterly Saturday.

TR.92

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  79  64  73  65 /  10  50  30  70  60
Waco                63  77  64  74  67 /  20  30  30  90  50
Paris               57  79  61  75  62 /  10  20  10  30  70
Denton              59  78  60  72  63 /  10  40  30  70  60
McKinney            59  78  61  72  64 /  10  40  30  60  60
Dallas              64  79  64  72  65 /  10  40  30  70  60
Terrell             60  78  63  74  64 /  10  40  30  60  70
Corsicana           64  79  65  75  66 /  10  40  30  80  60
Temple              63  79  64  74  67 /  30  30  30  90  50
Mineral Wells       61  76  61  72  64 /  10  50  30  80  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$