461
FXUS65 KGGW 270156 AAA
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
756 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) UPDATE: Red Flag Warning has been cancelled due to diminishing
winds and recovering humidity this evening.

2) Dry conditions are also expected on Saturday but lighter winds
will decrease fire weather concerns.

3) A more unsettled weather pattern is expected next week.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

The latest HREF shows the probability of both wind gusts greater
than 25 mph and relative humidity less than 25 percent will be as
high as 50 percent this afternoon in the eastern Fire Weather
Zones. The Red Flag Warning will remain in place until 8 pm for
the dry and gusty conditions expected at times. In addition, while
breezy conditions will continue tonight, they are not supportive
of Lake Wind headlines.

On Saturday, ridging will maintain an influence and lead to
another dry day across NE Montana, but lighter winds are forecast
to keep fire weather concerns contained.

A more zonal pattern next week is still favored by the ensembles
into next week with a series of shortwaves leading to a more
progressive weather pattern and thus the potential for showers at
times.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

Very high confidence exists for the FWZs 120 and 122 on Red Flag
Conditions being met at times through this evening, while moderate
confidence exists further west over FWZ due to somewhat lighter
winds.

Predictability for shower chances next week will be low given the
difficulty in timing and tracking individual shortwaves. That
said, messaging for chances for showers at times with
probabilities close to NBM seem the best course of action for now.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will continue through tonight and Saturday, with mid-level
clouds early, then clearing out to clear skies. Look for winds
from the northeast decreasing to 10 to 20 kts.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Due to diminishing winds and recovering humidity this evening, the
Red Flag Warning has now been cancelled.

On Saturday, dry conditions are favored with NBM mean RH values
dropping to 20 to 25 percent area wide, but lighter winds will
keep fire concerns contained overall.



&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow