Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
443 FXUS65 KGGW 262109 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 309 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) Red Flag Warning continues until 8 pm today for gusty winds and low relative humidity. 2) Dry conditions are also expected on Saturday but lighter winds will decrease fire weather concerns. 3) A more unsettled weather pattern is expected next week. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The latest HREF shows the probability of both wind gusts greater than 25 mph and relative humidity less than 25 percent will be as high as 50 percent this afternoon in the eastern Fire Weather Zones. The Red Flag Warning will remain in place until 8 pm for the dry and gusty conditions expected at times. In addition, while breezy conditions will continue tonight, they are not supportive of Lake Wind headlines. On Saturday, ridging will maintain an influence and lead to another dry day across NE Montana, but lighter winds are forecast to keep fire weather concerns contained. A more zonal pattern next week is still favored by the ensembles into next week with a series of shortwaves leading to a more progressive weather pattern and thus the potential for showers at times. CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST: Very high confidence exists for the FWZs 120 and 122 on Red Flag Conditions being met at times through this evening, while moderate confidence exists further west over FWZ due to somewhat lighter winds. Predictability for shower chances next week will be low given the difficulty in timing and tracking individual shortwaves. That said, messaging for chances for showers at times with probabilities close to NBM seem the best course of action for now. && .AVIATION... VFR will continue into tonight with midlevel clouds at times. Look for winds becoming northeast this evening and decreasing to 10 to 20 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for FWZs 120, 122, and 134 due to gusty winds and low relative humidity. Confidence is greatest in the east due to the presence of wind gusts between 35 and 45 mph along with humidity around 20 percent. On Saturday, dry conditions are favored with NBM mean RH values dropping to 20 to 25 percent area wide, but lighter winds will keep fire concerns contained overall. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Fort Peck Reservation and Daniels/Roosevelt/Sheridan Counties-Northern Valley and Northern Phillips Counties. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow