959
FXUS63 KGID 290604
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
104 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Frost Advisory is in effect for much of the area tonight
  into Monday morning. Frost could harm sensitive outdoor
  vegetation.

- Storms will be possible (up to around a 60% chance) on Tuesday
  mainly across the eastern half of the forecast area. Some of
  these storms may be strong to severe.

- High temperatures (after today) will mostly be in the 60s and
  70s with some 50s and 80s. Low temperatures will be in the 30s
  to 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Today and tonight...

An upper low/trough is centered over Nebraska with showers and
thunderstorms wrapping around this feature. The upper low will move
over South Dakota by this evening with the precipitation moving
northward as well. Winds are primarily out of the west to northwest
to north with some gusts. High temperatures today will range from
the upper 40s near and northwest of Lexington and Ord to the mid 60s
near and southeast of Beloit and Hebron. Low temperatures tonight
are expected to cool into the mid to upper 30s for most of south
central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas as surface
high pressure settles in across the area. This coupled with light
winds and mostly clear skies will likely create patchy frost. The
hindering factor on frost development may be clouds that linger
longer than expected. Expecting at least brief frost to occur across
much of the area tonight so a Frost Advisory has been issued for
areas in Nebraska mainly along and west of Highway 281 and Phillips
and Smith Counties in north central Kansas.

Monday through Wednesday...

The upper low/trough will continue to move northeastward on Monday.
Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central
Kansas will transition from the northwest to the southwest with
mostly sunny skies. High temperatures on Monday will range from the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Low temperatures Monday night are expected to
be in the mid 40s to mid 50s with south to southeast winds and
increasing clouds. An upper low centered over Montana will begin to
expand over Nebraska and Kansas on Tuesday. This will create
increased lift over the area which may lead to areas of showers and
drizzle during the morning on Tuesday. A cold front will begin to
push into the area from the northwest on Tuesday which may lead to
showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. Some of
these storms may become strong to severe. Temperatures on Tuesday
will be dependent on the timing of the front but are expected to
reach the low 70s to mid 80s. Shower and thunderstorm chances (up to
around 40%) will linger across the area Tuesday night. Low
temperatures Tuesday night are expected to range from the low 40s to
mid 50s. Showers and thunderstorms will still be possible (up to
around a 65% chance) during the day on Wednesday as the previously
mentioned upper trough moves closer to the area. Temperatures on
Wednesday will be cooler than the previous day with highs in the mid
60s to low 80s.

Wednesday night through next Sunday...

An upper trough to the west will move over and deepen over the Rocky
Mountains Wednesday night. The upper trough will begin moving over
Nebraska and Kansas and will increase upper lift. A cold front
associated with the upper trough will begin moving into the area.
This will result in increasing chances (up to around an 80% chance)
of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night. Low temperatures will
range from the mid 40s to mid 50s. Gusty northerly winds will be
across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas
on Thursday with lingering precipitation (up to around a 45%
chance). Temperatures on Thursday will be cooler with highs ranging
from the upper 50s to low 70s. Rain chances (up to around 25%)
continue Thursday night with lows ranging from the mid 30s to mid
40s. The upper trough will pass over the region on Friday with high
temperatures mostly in the 60s. High temperatures are expected to be
in the 60s and 70s on Saturday and in the 70s next Sunday with lows
generally in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Precipitation chances next
weekend will generally be 15 to 25 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 104 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

- General overview for KGRI/KEAR:
In what`s recently been (and will soon again be) a fairly active
weather pattern, these next 24-36 features overall-benign
aviation weather. There is high confidence in VFR
ceiling/visibility and dry/thunderstorm-free conditions, with
any clouds mainly consisting of limited "fair weather" cumulus
mainly this afternoon (although KGRI could possibly get brushed
by a brief high-end MVFR/low-end VFR deck right away during
these first few hours).

Even winds will be minimal by late-April standards, with
sustained speeds mainly at-or-below 10KT throughout (perhaps
some gusts to around 15KT mainly this afternoon). Direction-
wise, a mainly westerly to west-southwesterly component will
prevail most of the period, before a switch to light south-
southeasterlies occurs Monday evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039-040-046-
     047-060>062-072>075-082>085.
KS...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005-006.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Pfannkuch