Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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076 FXUS63 KGLD 301711 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1111 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A marginal to enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms continues for the region mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening. Best chances for severe will occur east of Highway 25. However, confidence is low at this time due to uncertainty on the location of a warm front which will determine where storms will develop. - Elevated to Near critical fire weather conditions are possible Thursday afternoon for locations along/west of Highway 27. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 240 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Across the region this morning, skies are mainly clear with a few spots seeing some passing scattered clouds. With high pressure to the east of the CWA, winds are southeasterly with gusts up to 20-30 mph at times. The latest RAP40 500mb analysis and mid level water vapor imagery are showing west-southwest flow aloft ahead of a shortwave currently over the central Rockies. The main wx concerns in the short term period will focus on fire wx conditions this afternoon and Thursday afternoon. The biggest concern for the CWA will be the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms in the Wednesday/Wednesday night timeframe. For today/tonight, high pressure east and a developing lee-side trough over the Front Range will keep a southerly gradient over the area through the day. Gusts up to 25-35 mph are possible area-wide. Above normal temps with dry conditions will ensue. Please refer to the Fire Wx section below for more information on fire danger. This evening/tonight will have the lee-side trough shift eastward in tandem with the aforementioned shortwave to potential trigger a few isolated rw/trw(20% chance)in the northern tier zones, especially Yuma county and areas along/east of Highway 83. Latest CAMs are showing isolated coverage. Going into Wednesday, the setup for expected precipitation is similar to the last couple events. A surface low will develop along the tail-end of the lee-side trough/front that moves off the Front Range. The low shifts to the SE Colorado/SW Kansas area, setting up a southeast flow into the region. There will be a dryline/warm front that will push into the region, that will impact area low level moisture initially. 700mb shortwave moving into the CWA by late afternoon/evening hours will help to trigger rw/trw. The latest GFS/NAM does have the low lifting slowly northeast overnight. This will put the southerly fetch to a switch over to northerly. This could help to stabilize the airmass(low cloud cover)in northern/western zones, limiting the chance for strong to severe storms. Nonetheless, SPC has increased the Marginal Risk area for storms for areas along/west of Highway 25, Slight Risk remains for areas east, with a sliver of Enhanced Risk for far eastern locales in Graham/ Norton counties. The latest NamNest has best chances from 05z Thursday onward for storms. Hail, wind and tornado threats are possible. Some localized heavy rainfall is possible. Please refer to the latest Hydro section for further information. For Thursday and Thursday night, wrap-around moisture from the exiting system will bring about chances(20-40%) for additional showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm, especially during the daytime hrs. Lower confidence for bigger area coverage as models have different timing as to the exit of the overall clouds/precip potential, but can`t rule out at least daytime potential. For temps, daytime highs today will range from the lower to mid 70s in the northwest, into the upper 70s to around 80F for areas in the south-southeast. Going into Wednesday, lower to mid 70s north of the Interstate, increasing to the lower 80s by Highway 40 and south. These numbers on Wednesday will be highly dependent on how fast cloud cover increases/persists with the anticipation of rain. On Thursday, lower to mid 60s west, into the upper 60s to lower 70s east. Overnight lows tonight will range in the 40s, warmest east of Highway 25. A few spots in the western portions of our northeast Colorado counties could see the upper 30s, from the Flagler area up north to the Joes/Kirk area. For Wednesday night, similar to tonight with more upper 30s expected in western portions of Yuma/Kit Carson counties. Thursday night, colder with mid 30s west increasing eastward to around 40F. Some wind chill readings during this time in Colorado could read in the mid to upper 20s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 154 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Upper level ridging over the area with low pressure centered in vicinity of ID/WY/UT Friday morning will have the area under southwesterly flow aloft. As the low pressure system progresses eastward, a front will sweep through the area in the Friday evening- Friday night timeframe, giving around a 30-50% chance for showers/ thunderstorms. Heading into the weekend, upper level ridging will build back in with flow becoming increasingly zonal while the next system comes into view off the west coast. Low pressure will skirt south of the area, then east on Sunday, and with the low level easterly upslope flow allowing for increased moisture into the area, at least expect to see some increased cloud cover but also potential for increased chances (up to around 20-25%) of showers/thunderstorms. As mentioned in prior discussion, there continues to be significant differences in guidance with regards to timing/placement of the early week low pressure system. Taking a look at ensemble members for 12Z Monday, placement of the upper low center ranges anywhere from still off the west coast to over the Desert Southwest to already encroaching on our area, with the jet streak working into our CWA. If the low is situated across the Desert Southwest/Four Corners region during the first half of the day Monday as currently suggested by majority of the GEFS ensemble members, could be looking at impactful weather day(s) for the start of the work week with possible hazards of gusty southerly to southwesterly winds, fire weather conditions, possible blowing dust concerns, thunderstorm potential followed by a frontal passage and wind shift to out of the north. Very low confidence at present in the potential for an early week multi- hazard event, so will continue to monitor for better consistency in guidance as this timeframe comes into closer range. For temperatures, looking at highs in the middle 60s to lower- middle 70s Friday and Saturday before warming into the 70s Sunday, and middle 70s to middle 80s Monday. For low temperatures, the forecast calls for middle 30s to upper 40s Saturday morning, low-mid 40s Sunday morning, middle 40s to middle 50s Monday morning, and low 40s to low 50s Tuesday morning. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1109 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Gusty northwest surface winds will continue this afternoon, then diminish tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 241 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Tuesday afternoon, Elevated to Near Critical fire wx conditions are possible area-wide. Humidity values will drop into the 17-22% range, with wind gusts through the day from the northwest around 25-35 mph. Some localized 40 mph gusts are possible. Rainfall received over the past week will help to mitigate area fuel moisture concerns. Thursday afternoon, some Elevated to Near Critical fire wx conditions are possible for areas along/west of Highway 27. Humidity could drop into the upper teens, with gusts into the 30-40 mph from the northwest. Lower confidence for these conditions than for this afternoon as the amount/extent of rainfall received on Wednesday will be a key ingredient to benefit/not benefit area fuels. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...024 FIRE WEATHER...JN