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000
FXUS63 KGLD 151842
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1242 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning in effect today for much of the Tri-State
  area.

- Low confidence for severe thunderstorms weather this evening,
  generally along east of HWY 83.

- High Wind Watch issued for Tuesday. Northwest winds forecast
  to gust around 65 mph, possibly higher, during the day
  Tuesday.

- Blowing dust threat for late this morning through the early
  evening east of the CO border.

- Conditional threat for blowing dust Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1019 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Based on the latest GFS model data (which does remarkably well
with dust forecasting), decided to issue a blowing dust advisory
for counties east of the CO border. The soil conditions have
not changed in the last week or so since the last dust event,
and may have worsened. The dust should be thickest an hour or
two either side of noon MT due to the stable 2-2.5 KM lapse
rates preventing the dust from diffusing vertically. Toward mid
afternoon the 2-2.5 KM rates become more unstable, allowing the
dust concentration to not be as thick. This continues through
sunset. After sunset the developing inversion should limit the
vertical extent of any blowing dust.

There is a conditional threat for blowing dust Tuesday as the
high winds develop. If rainfall occurs tonight, that will help
limit the blowing dust threat for most of the forecast area.
However if no rainfall occurs the forecast area will be primed
for another dust event Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 423 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Ahead of a low pressure system moving through the area overnight
Monday, high temperatures will warm into the 80s to low 90s across
the area. Southwesterly dry air will collide with the southeasterly
flow from the Gulf and cause a dryline to form over the area. The
moist southeasterly flow has been increasing dew points across the
northeastern half of the CWA overnight. The southwesterly winds
during the day will push this line to the east, but how far is the
million dollar question, especially regarding the severe weather
potential this evening/overnight. Current expectation are for the
dryline to setup along a line from about Oakley, KS to Trenton, NE.
Locations west of the dryline will see prolonged critical fire
weather conditions, hence the Red Flag Warning. RH values will drop
into the mid-single digits while winds will gust over 30 kts for 3-6
hours. Maximum wind gusts could reach near 40 kts. Locations to the
east could see brief critical fire weather conditions, but not see
them for more than 1-2 hours.

Blowing dust is still a concern this afternoon, and confidence for
less than 1 mile visibility in blowing dust is around 20-25%. Lapse
rates to support blowing dust are found over most of the area
(namely the southeastern 3/4 of the CWA), but there is an area
around Gove county that is more likely to see blowing dust. This
area is being highlighted due to the GFS showing a stronger area of
surface winds.

This evening and tonight, the low pressure system will bring a cold
front through the CWA which will start a general cooling trend for
the remainder of the period. The FROPA is expected to start around
3Z Tuesday from the northwest. Precipitation is expected to initiate
with the dryline in the evening, around 0-6Z Tuesday, and move
eastward. The thunderstorms are forecast across the eastern CWA.
These storms are very conditional and there is about a 50% chance
that they will not form. However, if they do form, they will
explode! SPC has placed a Slight risk for severe storms over
locations along and east of Highway 83. In the very far eastern
fringes of the CWA, there is an Enhanced risk due to the hail
threat. A dryline will setup near the western extent of the Slight
risk and be the trigger for the storms. Later in the evening, the
FROPA will add fuel to the environment and potentially send the
storms into overdrive with additional shear. Soundings from the NAM-
12 near Norton, KS show 3000-4000 J/kg of MU and SFC CAPE with LCLs
dropping to well under 1000m near 0-3Z. 0-1 km shear around this
time also increases to 25+ kts. Mid-level lapse rates range from 8.5-
9.5 C/km around 0-15Z. These ingredients suggest a risk of
significant hail and potentially tornadic storms overnight. In
contrast, the RAP13 is a lukewarm bowl of nothing. The RAP sounding
in the same location at 3Z shows a massive dry slot which would mean
absolutely no storms.

Climatologically speaking, this is the time of year we start seeing
maximum nocturnal convection. PoPs are highest Tuesday morning (up
to 70%) and taper off to the north-northeast through the afternoon
Tuesday. The higher PoPs do not correspond to the highest severe
weather threat. Instead, the increased PoPs are based on more
stratiform rain from wrap-around moisture. Majority of the PoPs and
QPF remain along and north of HWY 40, which would complicate things
in the afternoon Tuesday.

Overnight tonight, temperatures will cool into the upper 30s to 40s.

Behind the cold front Tuesday morning, northwesterly winds are
expected to strengthen. Across the southwestern CWA. Sustained winds
look to be around 30-40 kts with gusts approaching and exceeding 45-
55 kts expected for the most of the Tri-State area. A High Wind
Watch has been issued for portions of the CWA as confidence grew
this shift of High Winds occurring. If little to no precipitation
falls in the southwestern CWA (60% chance of occurrence) blowing
dust will be a concern in the early/mid afternoon, before the lapse
rates drop.

Temperatures Tuesday are a bit tricky due to the unknown extent of
the cloud coverage the cold front and wrap-around moisture will
bring in. The current forecast is for max Ts to be in the mid 60s in
the west/northwest and mid 70s in the southeast.

A few thunder showers are possible Tuesday evening/early night in
the northeastern CWA (~20%), but will exit the area before midnight.
Overnight temperatures will drop into the mid 30s and mid 40s with
warmer temperatures in the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

The area is under west-northwesterly flow aloft at the start of the
long term period as shortwave ridging is present overhead. The low
pressure system which is bringing active weather to the region at
the start of the work week becomes centered over IA/MN/WI within a
slightly negatively tilted trough. Another low centered over
Saskatchewan extends a trough into the northwest CONUS. Low pressure
develops in the lee of the Rockies, subsequently skirting eastward
south of the area Wednesday night-Thursday morning. A front pushing
south will allow precipitation chances (~30-70%, highest north) to
develop; can`t completely rule out a few rumbles of thunder with
this activity as well. Winds become breezy out of the north post-
front, gradually tapering off Thursday afternoon.

Shortwaves and sufficient low level moisture provided by easterly
flow will continue off and on precipitation chances (highest chances
will be Friday night into Saturday at ~50-70%), or at least
increased cloud cover, through much of the long term period. With
these showers and the cooler temperatures, expecting snow to mix in
at times across western portions of the area, with minimal, if any,
accumulation expected. In terms of QPF, currently expecting from a
few hundredths of an inch up to around two tenths of an inch with
locally higher amounts possible.

Temperatures on Wednesday continue above normal (in the 70s to low
80s) before dipping below normal, generally in the 50s Thursday and
Friday, in the 40s Saturday, followed by a warming trend with upper
level ridging working eastward late in the period. Low temperatures
will also be nearer to the freezing mark until the latter part of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1138 AM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main impact this afternoon
will be the potential for blowing dust to obstruct the
visibility. Currently KMCK looks to be the most favored for that
to occur. Blowing dust threat should subside after sunset,
although there may still be some blowing dust but the
concentrations should be rather low.

Thunderstorm development should be east of KMCK tonight. However
there will be LLWS as the surface winds turn from the south to
the west.

There is a chance for rainfall overnight into Tuesday morning
for both sites. However confidence is less than 50% that there
will be rainfall. If no rainfall occurs, this will allow for
blowing dust to occur Tuesday morning as the high winds develop.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for KSZ001-013-027-028-041-042.
     Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening
     for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254.
     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for COZ090>092.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ this evening for
     NEZ079-080.
     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for NEZ079.
     Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening
     for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...JN/CA
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CA