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000
FXUS64 KHUN 141639
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1139 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

A mid-level shortwave trough will shift east-southeastward from
the western Ozark Plateau today, embedded within prevailing WNW
flow aloft between a strong subtropical high centered along the
Gulf coast of Mexico and a cold core vortex across southeastern
Canada. Synoptic scale ascent will gradually strengthen as this
disturbance approaches western portions of the TN Valley late this
afternoon, contributing to broken/overcast mid-level clouds and
perhaps a few sprinkles of rain or light showers (given elevated
CAPE of 200-400 J/kg). In the lower-levels, SSW winds will
continue to increase as a surface high (initially centered east of
the FL peninsula and north of the Bahamas) spreads further into
the western North Atlantic, while a weak area of low pressure
tracks east-southeastward from the central Great Lakes into the
northern Mid-Atlantic region. Although this will lead to some
moistening of the boundary layer, the northward return of tropical
moisture will be impeded by the western extension of the Bermuda
ridge (into the eastern Gulf) and dewpoints should only recover
into the m50s. Highs appear on track to reach u70s-l80s (perhaps a
couple of degrees cooler atop the Cumberland Plateau).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Winds will subside by sunset as surface high pressure continues
east and the pressure gradient relaxes. Monday will see the
lingering impacts of high pressure with one more clear and calm
day with highs in the 80s. Tuesday will mark a pattern shift as an
upper level trough and associated surface low pressure system
continues its journey east.

Tuesday morning the low pressure system will be located in the
Plains with rain, clouds, and severe weather potential extending
well east ahead of the associated cold front. With the best
chances for rain and thunder arriving later in the day on
Wednesday with the arrival of the front, long range models differ
on rain and thunder coverage ahead of the front. The GFS continues
to indicate prefrontal showers beginning Tuesday night with the
EURO favoring a more dry solution with basically no rain until
the arrival of the front. For now, low to medium rain chances were
maintained overnight on Tuesday. Severe potential with any
thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday morning ahead of the
cold front look questionable as very little instability is
indicated in current model guidance. That being said, with
sufficient bulk shear (40-50 KTS) present, more organized
convection is certainly possible with any ongoing thunderstorms
having the potential for gusty winds and frequent lightning.

Better severe weather parameters develop come sunrise on
Wednesday. Moisture advection along and ahead of the front looks
to bring in dew points in the 60s as well as a 500-1000 J/Kg of
SBCAPE moving into NW AL through the day. Actual amounts of
instability will likely depend on prefrontal clouds and shower
coverage. Models again differ in the timing of the cold front
passage however maintain its passage during the daylight hours on
Wednesday. The EURO favors a faster mid day passage which could
limit destabilization while the GFS favors a late afternoon to
evening passage. While exact weather hazards are hard to narrow
down at this this range, it is looking increasingly possible to
see strong to potentially severe storms with the passage of the
cold front on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Rain chances taper off Wednesday night with Thursday looking to be
a dry day as the initial cold front pushes into the mid Atlantic.
Unfortunately dry weather will be short lived as a secondary cold
front associated with a low pressure system moving through the
northern Great Lakes Region moves through the area on Friday.
Overcast skies and low to medium rain chances return Friday
morning and remain throughout the day. Low rain chances and partly
cloudy skies linger on the back side of the cold front on
Saturday with cooler and drier air moving in behind the cold front
through the remainder of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

A weak upper-level disturbance will shift east-southeastward into
the TN Valley by late this aftn, resulting in bkn-ovc layers of
As/Cs and perhaps a few sprinkles of rain or lgt SHRA to go along
with SW winds of 10G18 kts. Skies will clear (and the remote
chance for sprinkles will end) from NW-to-SE late this aftn/early
this evening as the wave aloft begins to move away from the
region, with mostly clear skies and lgt SSW flow perhaps allowing
for the development of patchy BR/FG in a few locations. Low-level
moisture return around the northwestern periphery of a surface
ridge over the western North Atlantic will result in development
of a broken stratocu layer by 10Z, that should provide cigs arnd
3500 ft for the remainder of the period. Sfc winds will veer to SW
and increase to 8G16 kts once again by 15Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...RAD
LONG TERM...RAD
AVIATION...70/DD