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000
FXUS61 KILN 150812
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
412 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south through the area today, dissipating
just south of the Ohio River this evening. The remnants of this
front will then be pulled to the north-northeast as a warm front
on Tuesday. Tuesday evening and overnight will see warm sector
showers develop and move east as a strong moisture feed comes
together ahead of a cold front that moves east through the area
Wednesday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The southward moving and dissipating cold front near the I-70
corridor this morning will cross the Ohio River this evening. A
sprinkle or light shower can`t be ruled out later today,
generally east of Cincinnati and south of Chillicothe. This is
not going to have enough areal coverage to make it into the
forecast as any expected weather. Some mid level clouds along
the front and passing cirrus elsewhere will put together another
nice spring day with highs ranging from the mid 70s in west
central Ohio, upper 70s over a relatively narrow swath from
Richmond to Dayton to Hillsboro and Lancaster, and near or in
the low 80s elsewhere. Light wind will make a transition from
southwest to northwest and then northeast as the front crosses.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Moisture begins to pool along the dissipated front in Kentucky
overnight as it develops into a warm front. Upper level energy
is undercutting and pooling on the back side of the high
pressure ridge moving east. As the ridge moves east, it is
expected to overcome most of the mid level energy that could
work with the warm front to produce shower and thunderstorm
activity beginning in the southwest in the predawn hours and
shifting its focus more northeast in the afternoon, bisecting
the CWA from nw-se. A dry punch should become more prominent in
the southwest later in the day and briefly expand before warm
sector showers develop later due to a strong moisture transport.

Mild temperatures will remain with lows near 50 in the far north
to near 60 in the far south. Highs Tuesday will similar to
Monday but a bit more muted in the southwest. Expect mid 70s
along and north of the I-70 corridor, upper 70s to near 80 in
the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A somewhat active start to the long term period is expected as
a trof with attendant midlevel low eject E from the mid MS Rvr
Vly into the NW OH Vly. Although it is a fairly deep/strong
system, it will become more vertically-stacked into the day
Wednesday, with a filling/occlusion of the sfc low center
beneath the pronounced midlevel low center. Nevertheless, deep-
layer forcing will overspread the area beginning early Wednesday
morning, with an expectation for a corresponding batch of early
morning SHRA/TSRA to work its way E into/through the ILN FA
prior to the afternoon.

As we have seen several times already this springtime, the
prevalence of early morning/early day convection and the
associated widespread cloud cover that goes with it can
substantially modulate, delay, and limit attempts for
destabilization prior to the primary round of forcing/storms. It
looks like this /could/ be the case again on Wednesday as
fairly widespread pcpn is expected around daybreak, with a
narrowing axis of instby advecting E and pinching off into the
ILN FA through the afternoon hours. A better LL thermodynamic
environment is expected to exist early in the day, initially to
the W of the local area before it drifts E into the SW third or
so of the local area into early afternoon. Strong LL flow will
exist ahead of the advancing front, with good LL/deeper-layer
shear to work with. Sfc flow should be veered, but with plenty
of speed and some subtle LL directional shear in the profile.
The question remains just how much destabilization is able to
occur late morning through mid afternoon in the pre-storm
environment and to what degree that better warm sector is able
to move N/E before pinching off as the system continues to
occlude and the front pivots to more of a ENE-WSW orientation
opposed to NE-SW orientation. The system as a whole, including
the associated wind fields around it, should be in a weakening
stage with eastward extent, lending itself to uncertainties in
just how much the richer LL moisture and better thermodynamic
environment is able to surge northward prior to the front`s
arrival. At this juncture, it does appear that there will be at
least a small window for development of better instby in EC IN
and far wrn WC OH and the Tri-State/N KY by early/mid afternoon,
but how much this may extend N/E still remains uncertain. Given
the setup, would expect that several clusters of TSRA should
develop upstream in IN early Wednesday afternoon before moving
to the E into the Tri-State by early/mid afternoon. At this
juncture, a few strong to severe storms do appear possible, with
gusty/damaging winds and large hail being the primary threats.
Will continue to highlight potential in HWO. Rainfall on
Wednesday should generally be on the order of one half to one
inch, with slightly higher amounts possible in the stronger
storms.

Beyond Wednesday, quasi-zonal flows becomes established as a
very large/expansive mid/upper level low migrates into the upper
Midwest, with zonal flow extending southward through the mid MS
Rvr Vly and OH Vly. Another S/W within this zonal flow will
eject E into the region by Friday into Saturday as an elongated
trof pushes S into the central CONUS, allowing for widespread
midlevel height falls. This S/W should bring another round of
light RA to the area Friday into Saturday as much cooler air
finally attempts to settle in from the N.

Much above normal temperatures are on tap Wednesday and
Thursday before increased clouds and precipitation bring
slightly cooler temps on Friday. More widespread CAA will evolve
this weekend, with below normal temps settling into the OH Vly
Sunday through early next week. Drier conditions are favored
toward the end of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail and some mid level clouds in central
Ohio (CMH/LCK) should persist for a few more hours. These clouds
are with a dying line of shower activity that is coincident with
a slow, southward moving, weak cold front.

Light southwest wind will turn westerly and then north-northeast
through the day, beginning in central Ohio, Dayton, Wilmington,
and then wrapping up last later today in metro Cincinnati
CVG/LUK. All winds should stay under 8kt, and with a 5kt or
lower expected speed, used variable to account for the large
directional change due to the dissipating cold front.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
night. MVFR ceilings possible Thursday. MVFR conditions possible
Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Franks