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000
FXUS63 KILX 140152
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
852 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs will reach the lower 80s Sunday and Monday, with lows only
  in the 50s to lower 60s.

- A strong storm system will affect the region Tuesday, with
  strong southerly winds likely gusting 35 to 45 mph, and showers
  and thunderstorms which could become severe especially late
  afternoon through late evening.

- Temperatures will turn much cooler late next week into next
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

High clouds will continue to move over the CWA this evening and
through the night. These could hold temps a little bit, but given
the dry airmass (dwpts in the mid 40s) think temps will still fall
to around 60 across the area. Some places with lighter winds and
mostly clear skies may drop more, but only a couple of degrees
more. Will make some small adjustments to the temps, overnight
low, and clouds. Update coming shortly but overall message remains
the same for the rest of the night.

Auten

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

An upper level shortwave will traverse the area tonight, with most
impacts well to the north. Although hi-res models depict thick
enough mid-upper level cloudiness for some precipitation generation
aloft, dry low levels look to prevent any precipitation from
reaching the surface. However, cloudy skies and enough pressure
gradient for a light breeze overnight should promote very mild
temperatures, with around 60 degree lows expected. A cold front
trailing this system will push southward and stall out in central IL
Sunday night, which should bring temperatures down several degrees
for Sunday night, at least for the northern half of central IL. This
front will lift back northward as a warm front Monday into Monday
night as a strong low pressure system ejects out of the southwest US
into the central Plains.

The aforementioned low looks to track into the upper Midwest by
Wednesday morning, lifting the warm front north of central IL by
Tuesday morning. The warm sector over central IL looks to approach
1.5 inch precipitable water, dewpoints into the 60s, and once
capping erodes from early-day soundings, over 1000 J/kg SBCAPE. A
cold front sweeping eastward with this system should bring the lift
needed to initiate thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, and strong wind
flow aloft will bring the needed shear to cause these to become
severe. The Storm Prediction center maintains a 15-30 percent
probability for severe storms extending from northeast TX through
the central Mississippi Valley including nearly the entire state of
Illinois. Timing for severe storms looks to be mainly late afternoon
through late evening in central and southeast IL. Total
precipitation does not look to be impressive at this point, with
current expectations that precipitation will fall mainly as a fast
moving squall line or supercells rather than persistent or recurring
bands of showers/thunderstorms. Storm total rainfall is outlooked
for a half inch to an inch across central and SE IL. Nevertheless,
strong thunderstorms could produce some localized flash flooding,
especially in urban areas, and WPC has the area designated in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Although some rainfall is
possible Monday night into Tuesday morning, most of the rainfall
should be Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday evening.

Winds look to be strong and gusty both Tuesday in the warm sector,
and Wednesday behind the system, with 35-45 mph gusts from the south
expected Tuesday, and 35-45 mph from the NW Wednesday.

A break in precipitation chances should take place Wednesday into
Wednesday night, followed by another cold frontal passage
Thursday, that should bring additional chances for showers and a
few thunderstorms, followed by much cooler temperatures. Highs in
the 50s and lows in the 30s are currently forecast for Friday and
Saturday.

37

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. High
cirrus will move into the area and should remain FEW to SCT
through the night and into tomorrow. Winds will be south this
evening but become more south to southwest as the ridge continues
to move east. Southwest winds are expected tomorrow. Speeds should
decrease here soon, but still be around 10-15 kts even into the
overnight hours. Expecting an increase in speeds with gusts of
20-25kts tomorrow. Also expecting wind shear to develop tonight at
all sites with gusts around 45-50kts possible...then decreasing
in the morning as the inversion mixes out and sfc winds increase.


Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$