385
FXUS63 KIWX 142302
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
702 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms slowly arrive from south to north
  through this evening.

- Drying out after sunrise Wednesday and through most of
  Thursday.

- Warmer and remaining unsettled this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Band of shower/storms that impacted areas along and north of the
Toll Road have been slowly weakening. The slow movement resulted
in reports of 1.5 to over 2 inches of rain along with one report
of penny size hail in a stronger storm. While this band may
persist for a few more hours, focus shifts south to an area of
rain/rain showers. Over the last hour, better progress has been
noted over NW Ohio and an area of rain north of Indianapolis
struggling to expand north. CAMs seem to still expand this north
in the coming hours as the area of low pressure and associated
disturbance edge east across southern Indiana. Pops have been
adjusted somewhat, but confidence on northern extent remains low
and may require some further changes. Threat for thunder has
diminished, but for the time being left a slgt chc mention in.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A surface low, stacked beneath a closed-low aloft, is spinning over
extreme eastern Missouri. A stationary front is noted in the
vicinity of the Michigan state line, where a could of showers
and a thunderstorm are ongoing. An area of showers have been
slowly making their way north through Indiana, on the nose of an
embedded vorticity maximum as seen on water vapor. These
showers will continue to slide north and eventually east
through the remainder of today and into Wednesday morning.
Instability and shear are lacking. Therefore, no severe weather
is expected. Overall, I do expect some showers to linger beyond
sunrise Wednesday from the Fort Wayne area southeastward,
followed by drying conditions.

A progressive mid-latitude jet stream keeps the frequent rain
chances in the forecast into early next week. Thursday will
offer a mostly dry day until showers and storms arrive near
sunset as a cold front approaches. Wet weather continues into
Friday as the trailing cold front interacts with a developing
low near the mid-Mississippi River Valley. This low threatens to
dampen Saturday as well; indicating Sunday could be the better
of weekend day. Amid the active pattern, broad brush POPs
continue into early next week. Trending warmer, however, with
highs in the 80s favored at times as southern US ride amplifies.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Band of storms that briefly impacted KSBN has shifted west and
weakened. Trends seem to suggest that KSBN may remain VFR
through the period as the bulk of rainfall and associated flight
impacts most likely resides closer to KFWA. 23Z ob now has MVFR
cigs as the leading edge of the rain was almost at the airport
and expected to linger for at least a few hours before trending
back south. Cigs will slowly drop and pockets of lower vsbys are
expected based on upstream trends under the rain shield. A tempo
group as been introduced to address this.

Some improvement at KFWA is expected during the day Thursday,
but may be slow to occur until the area of low pressure departs.
Will keep MVFR cigs in place for the moment.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Fisher
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Fisher