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000
FXUS64 KJAN 161500 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1000 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 944 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The 12Z Tue JAN sounding had a very dry layer beneath a stout cap
at 850mb. It will take some time to saturate this layer and get
measurable precipitation but that`s still expected to occur later
this afternoon in our northwest most zones as a low pressure
system to our west draws closer to our CWA. Elsewhere, despite a
decent amount of cloud cover today, above normal temperatures are
expected and the current forecast did not need changing. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Today and tonight...

Early morning global guidance shows a 988mb closed low centered just
north of the Four Corners region that will continue to track east
across the Great Plains later this morning then shifting northeast
towards the Great Lakes region later this afternoon. As the
aforementioned sfc low makes its way across the Plains today, the
tail end of this sfc low will attempt to push a cold front into NW
MS this evening, however surface ridging across our area will hang
tough. A breezy southeast to south winds will develop across our CWA
today. This will allow for an increase of sufficient moisture which
will be enough to support the development of a few isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms across our northwest zones this
afternoon. Went ahead and trimmed the gradient wind graphic slightly
to keep some areas northwest of the Natchez Trace included. Expect
afternoon highs to peak in the low to mid 80s. Heading into tonight,
the cold front will push into northern Mississippi as the ridge axis
exits our forecast area and slowly starts to track east towards
Alabama. This will help increase rain chances for areas north of I-
20. Expect overnight lows to be seasonably warm, some 5-10 deg. F
above normal, in the mid- upper 60s east of I-55 to low 70s to
the northwest. /CR/

Midweek through early next week (Wednesday-next Monday)...

Midweek (Wednesday-Thursday):

Synoptic & sfc pattern will consist of eastward building mean ridge
at the sfc & aloft, while low-level return flow will continue across
the area Wednesday. Vertically stacked cold core low aloft/sfc low
will be moving into the Great Lakes by midweek on Wednesday. Upper
low will weaken, leading to sfc low losing some punch in the Great
Lakes. Weak frontal zone is expected to swing southeast, bringing
some light rain & storm chances areas northwest of the Natchez Trace
to Hwy 82 corridor early morning before moving out through Wednesday
aftn. There will be some gradient wind around but not as much as
today. An additional shortwave trough/frontal ascent will occur
around Thursday, where some steeper lapse rates/vertical totals in
mid-upper 20s & 25-30kt flow in the 0-3km & 0-6km layers,
respectively, may support some organized stronger convection. Can`t
rule out some isolated severe potential with hail being the main
concern during this time, but confidence is too low to introduce in
HWO graphics at this time. Seasonably warm conditions are expected
in the midweek timeframe, with highs some +5 deg. F above normal in
the low-mid 80s & lows some 10-15 deg. F above normal in the mid 60s
east of I-55 to mid-upper 60s to the northwest.

Late week-early next weekend (Friday-Sunday): The region will remain
on the northern fringe of the upper ridge over the Bay of Campeche
region while deep longwave trough/cold core spins over south-central
Canada. Westerly zonal flow will be persistent, with stationary
frontal boundary slowly sagging to the south late week into the
weekend. There could be multi-rounds of rain & storms into late week
& weekend, combined with bulk shear & lapse rates, support some
continued rain & storm potential. Isolated severe storms also can`t
be ruled out during this time. Fcst elements consist of increased
rain & storm chances across the the northern half of the area Friday
before scattered rain & storm chances move in during the weekend.
Seasonably warm conditions are expected Friday with highs in the mid-
upper 80s, before cooling down into late weekend to seasonably cool
in the mid 60s northwest of the Natchez Trace to upper 60s to near
70 degrees F to the southeast by Sunday. Lows will be seasonably
warm both Friday & Saturday mornings in the low-mid 60s before front
moves in through the weekend & more seasonable in the mid to upper
50s by Sunday morning. As the front moves through & high
pressure/dry air settles in, expect some moderation of highs Monday
but seasonably cool, some 5-10 deg. F below normal, by Monday
morning. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A mixture of VFR/MVFR/IFR ceilings will occur across central
Mississippi as clouds continue to increase across the area to start
off the TAF period. Winds will remain to the south and will be
breezy with gusty conditions peaking between 17-23z Tuesday.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will occur across several
northern TAF sites through 21Z Wednesday. Ceilings will start to
improve to VFR conditions by 17Z Tuesday into the remainder of the
afternoon. Ceilings will begin to drop into MVFR/IFR conditions a
little after 08Z Wednesday. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       84  67  82  67 /  10  10  10  10
Meridian      86  64  81  65 /   0   0  10  10
Vicksburg     85  69  83  68 /  10  10  10  10
Hattiesburg   84  65  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       85  68  83  67 /  10   0  10  10
Greenville    83  70  83  68 /  10  40  10  10
Greenwood     83  68  82  67 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CR/DC/22