271
FXUS63 KLBF 050903
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
403 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather is possible across ncntl Nebraska Monday. The
  primary concern is wind damage and large hail. The tornado
  risk is currently 2 percent, which is low.

- Weather conditions are being monitored for high winds across
  nrn Nebraska Monday. Confidence is too low to warrant a High
  Wind Watch or Warning for this forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Pockets of stratus are developing across wrn KS and ern Colo this
morning. The SREF and to a lesser extent the HREF suggest a sunrise
surprise across wrn Nebraska. This means mixing processes after
sunrise this morning will cause areas of stratus to form. The models
suggest the stratus will mix out this afternoon and then reform this
evening and overnight. The moisture will be deep enough, near 800mb,
for drizzle or light showers late tonight. The approach of a strong
Pacific cold front, falling heights and PV1.5 anomaly early Monday
morning should set off thunderstorms. Moisture will deepen further
to 700mb or higher Monday morning.

The models appear to be a bit faster with the timing of the Pacific
front and the front could be east of ncntl Nebraska by 21z Monday
afternoon. WPC has trended QPF amounts down. Winds aloft are strong
but fairly unidirectional and the models show a fast moving linear
line of thunderstorms stretching north and south from SD through
Nebraska to KS. Wind damage appears to be the primary concern across
ncntl Nebraska followed by large hail. SPC suggested just a 2
percent tornado risk across ncntl Nebraska. It`s worth noting, some
of the CAMs show this line of storms underway as early as 15z Monday
morning. Warm air advection for this system will be aimed at cntl
and ern Nebraska and really won`t be established until 18z. Thus,
the severe weather risk is modest and SPC has assigned a slight risk
for hail and wind.

The temperature forecast today through Sunday is on the warmer side
of the forecast envelop for highs in the 60s to near 70 both days
and lows in the 50s tonight. It uses the RAP and short term model
blend plus bias correction.

The wind forecast Monday is troubling given sub 990mb sfc low
pressure will form across the nrn Plains. This low will deepen to
near 980mb Monday night. The concern is high winds across nrn
Nebraska Monday. Bufkit-GFS suggested high wind gusts from KVTN
west, generally along highway 20. This area will be closest to the
deepening sfc low across the Dakotas. High winds are backed by the
ECM and GFS operational but the CAMs and the NBM 90th percentile
are negative which makes the forecast uncertain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

980mb sfc low pressure should be established across the nrn Plains
Tuesday morning. The models show a belt of high winds
circulating close to the low center across ern MT, nrn WY and
nrn SD; safely north of wrn and ncntl Nebraska. Windy conditions
are expected across Nebraska but below high wind criteria.
Wrn/ncntl Nebraska gets POPs for shra and thunderstorms
developing in wrap around moisture.

The upper low will slowly fill and drift south through Nebraska
Wednesday for additional shower and thunderstorm development. This
activity should remain mostly isolated to scattered. Lingering cold
air aloft Thursday and Friday will also produce showers and
thunderstorms. Most likely, the rain Tuesday through Friday will be
diurnally enhanced.

Saturday and beyond, the models are in good agreement developing a
winter-type split flow pattern aloft featuring a belt of strong
subtropical winds across the srn States and nw flow across Nebraska
and areas north. This should produce dry weather across Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Low-level moisture will begin to spread north from the
Gulf/southern plains today. Lower clouds will increase across
southwest Nebraska later this morning as the moisture spreads
northward into the region. MVFR is expected across far
southwest Nebraska from mid morning to mid afternoon before
lifting. Later this evening, IFR ceilings will develop northward
into the area as the better moisture arrives. The other story
will be gusty south to southeast winds mid-morning onward.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Taylor