306
FXUS64 KLCH 041706
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1206 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Scattered convection has been developing across northern Hardin
and Tyler Counties, and will be moving east into Jasper and Newton
in the next few hours. Adjusted hourly PoPs to reflect current
radar obs and trends through early afternoon. Convection will bear
monitoring as morning soundings indicate mid-level lapse rates
and instability sufficient to support some isolated hail or strong
wind gusts. On top of this, the threat for flash flooding will
persist given saturated conditions across SE TX. Outside of PoPs,
only minor changes were made to hourly T/Td to align with morning
obs, otherwise forecast has been generally on track. Text
products have been updated and issued.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A broken line of convection, with a history of producing hail,
continues to traverse the coastal waters of southeast Texas at
this hour. This activity was very poorly accounted for in short
range guidance, wasn`t depicted in previous forecasts and was,
frankly, very unexpected this morning. Still, the seemingly
shallow shortwave responsible appears to be losing steam as it
progresses and a gradual weakening trend should continue with
storms dissipating entirely by mid morning. Inland, another round
of better forecasted light fog continues to develop across the
region this morning where winds have become light or calm. As has
been the case the last couple of morning, this should be fairly
short lived after sunrise.

Some of the upper level moisture presently supporting the ongoing
convection in the gulf is progged to lift inland across the region
today where it will interact with another weak energy wave moving
across the region this afternoon initializing isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms as it does so. While any
storms that develop will be capable of producing brief heavy
rainfall, precip totals should remain generally under a half inch
and aren`t expected to be enough to exacerbate previous or
ongoing flooding across the region.

A stronger shortwave and another surge of moisture will push
across the region closer to the coast Sunday initializing
scattered to widespread convection as it does so. Forecast QPF
with this disturbance is higher than today with pockets of
locally heavy rainfall having the potential to cause some
localized flooding. This convection should end quickly during the
evening as the shortwave lifts off to the Northeast in what
should be the last of the parade of MCS`s seen across the area the
last several days. Despite no appreciable upper level support,
there will be enough residual moisture across the region Monday to
allow for some isolated diurnally driven afternoon convection
during the afternoon with these quickly ending Monday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Drier air aloft will finally shut off the spigot Tuesday beginning
a noticeable warming trend with afternoon highs climbing into the
mid to upper 80s and even a few lower 90s across parts of central
Louisiana and interior Southeast Texas Wednesday and Thursday.
Combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat indices will be
flirting with 100 for the first time since last fall. The good
news is that this looks to be fairly short lived as a frontal
boundary is progged to push through the region Friday advecting
noticeably cooler temperatures back into the region by next
weekend.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Visible satellite shows multiple cloud layers over the region, a
low cumulus deck forming amid the southeasterly low level flow
and a midlevel altocumulus deck spreading across the area from the
west. The lowest clouds continue to create a mix of SCT VFR to
BKN MVFR conditions at area terminals, but anticipate all sites
will prevail in VFR through the afternoon. A few TSRA will also be
possible through the afternoon as a weak perturbation moves over
the area. Cigs should gradually lower back to MVFR overnight into
Sunday morning, amid generally light southerly winds. Another
round of SHRA/TSRA will begin moving into the area from the west
after 12Z Sunday, potentially affecting BPT/LCH.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to traverse the coastal
waters through the early morning, but should gradually weaken as
they do so with activity coming to an end by mid morning.
Additional showers and thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon
with a drier pattern expected Monday through Friday. Light to
moderate onshore flow and seas of three to four feet will prevail
through the day and much of the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  66  81  66 /  30  20  60  20
LCH  83  70  83  70 /  30  20  50  20
LFT  85  71  85  71 /  30  10  30  20
BPT  83  72  83  71 /  20  20  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...24