144
FXUS63 KLMK 090738
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
338 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Slight chance of scattered to isolated storms this afternoon
    across southern IN. Main threat gusty winds and hail.

*   Below normal temperatures return by Friday and persist into the
    weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Area radar mosaic shows an area of moderate to heavy showers with
embedded thunder working across central IN and through KY central KY
during the predawn hours. The threat of severe has come to an end
with the best overall dynamics remaining south across the TN valley
for the remainder of the morning. Flood watch was cancelled for
northern parts of our CWA (all of southern IN, the Bluegrass, and
north central KY) with central and southern KY remaining until 12z
due to ongoing flash flood warnings and advisories.

Bulk of the showers and storms will diminish through the morning
before a sfc low currently centered over central IL works across
central IN eastward dragging a cold front across the region. Other
than the morning precipitation, the bulk of the forecast looks to
remain dry. As cooler air slowly works in behind the departing sfc
low and cold front, steep low-level lapse rates and a sfc trough
behind the cold front later this afternoon/evening could spark an
isolated/sct`d storm mainly across our southern IN counties this
afternoon. SPC has that area under a marginal risk with gusty winds
and hail the main threat from some of these storms. Overall the
threat and confidence is low, especially compared to the severe
threat the last couple of days. Highs will be in the upper 70s to
near 80.

Overnight some low level stratus could build back in over the area
as cold air advects in over the region as winds become north-
northeast. Lows will be in the low/mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

An amplified pattern develops over the CONUS for the end of the week
and into the weekend as a deep trough develops across the eastern
third of the US and a large expansive ridge over the western US.
This will send a series of shortwave troughs through the Ohio Valley
Friday and into the weekend. This will result in temperatures 5 to
10 degrees below normal Friday and Saturday before moderating closer
to normal Sunday into early next week. There could be few chances of
scattered showers or isolated storms on Saturday as the second
shortwave trough drops in across the Ohio Valley from the northwest.

Sunday into the early part of next week will feature a closed low
over the Four Corners working eastward towards the Ohio Valley.
Slight ridging aloft along with a sfc high will bring dry and mainly
sunny weather for Sunday. As the closed low approaches the Ohio
Valley, it will open up and develop a weak sfc low over the central
US and push it across the region late Monday into Tuesday. We could
get some showers and a few thunderstorms with this system. Another
weak system could work through Wednesday with additional chances of
showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Main threat of severe weather seems to be over with the exception of
BWG where there remains a chance of strong winds and hail through
the first couple of hours of forecast as a complex of showers and
thunderstorms current stretching from Vincennes, IN to Evansville,
IN down to around Clarksville TN continues to push eastward. This
could bring TAF sites some showers and a few thunderstorms with the
strongest of storms as mentioned above for BWG between around 08z to
around 11z. These storms could bring a period of gusty winds,
lightning as well as some brief VIS and CIG issues from MVFR to IFR.

Once the rain and storms pass mid clouds may hang around before a
cold front sweeps through late morning to around midday. This will
bring a period of MVFR flight categories for a couple of hours and
cause a wind shift from the south to more westerly. Winds will be
breezy and gusting to around 20-25kts through the afternoon with a
return of VFR CIG by afternoon and evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for KYZ023-
     024-026>028-045>047-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN