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000
FXUS64 KMAF 132026
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
326 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Not much to write home about in the short term.  WV imagery shows
the west coast trough just off the Bay Area coast, leaving West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft.  At the
surface, respectable return flow continues.  A few mountain wave
clouds are crossing into the Presidio Valley from Mexico, but
otherwise CAVU conditions are resulting in a nice afternoon for the
region.

Tonight, the LLJ will only be 30-35kts, but will continue advecting
Gulf moisture into the east.  In the west, surface winds will veer
to west in response to leeside troughing as the Bay Area trough
makes landfall.  These winds, and increased boundary layer moisture,
will keep overnight minimums well above normal.

Sunday, the westerlies mentioned above will add a downslope warming
component to the mix, helping increase thicknesses to yield perhaps
the warmest day this spring as highs plateau ~ 10-12F above normal.

Sunday night, return flow continues in the east, advecting 60+F
surface dewpoints up the Pecos River Valley by 12Z Monday.  This
will keep overnight lows an average of 13-15F above normal,
especially in the east where better low-level moisture is present.
This will sharpen up a dryline mid-CWA by 12Z Monday, priming the
pump for a severe weather event Monday afternoon in not Midland...

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Monday starts the week off with windy conditions as an upper low
moves just north of the area. A High Wind Watch will be hoisted for
the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains with this forecast package.
Expansion of the watch may be needed for the Davis Mountains and
Eddy County Plains as this event moves into the near term as
confidence is not as high about high winds being seen in those
areas(though it will be quite windy either way). Most other adjacent
plains and lower elevation locales will likely see Wind Advisories
issued for the breezy and gusty winds. Monday afternoon also sees a
dryline take shape north-south through the central Permian Basin
down towards Fort Stockton and Marathon. The position of the dryline
will determine which areas near or just east of the aforementioned
locations see storms, some of which may be severe. The best chances
remains over the eastern counties during the late afternoon and into
the evening.

Winds decrease late Monday night after the passage of a Pacific
front that will reinforce dry air that continues to sit over the
western portions of the CWA. Warm and dry conditions prevail Tuesday
through Thursday with daytime highs reaching into the upper 80s to
low 90s areawide. Ensembles continue to show a cooldown late this
coming week with a backdoor front sliding across the Permian Basin
and SE NM and bringing a chance for rain. However, there remains
some uncertainty regarding both temperatures and which spots
actually see precipitation, so expect this to change over the coming
days.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR/CAVU conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Return flow this
afternoon/night will veer to westerly by late morning Sunday,
increase, and become gusty. Forecast soundings suggest convective
temperatures are too high for cu development.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Southerly to southwest flow beneath a flattened ridge continue this
afternoon leading to temperatures reaching well above normal.
Combined with min RHs in the 10-15% range and already dry fuels,
there is an elevated fire weather concern. This continues into
Sunday as an upper low moves through the Desert Southwest and
approaches the region. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for SE
NM and much of West Texas for Monday afternoon into Monday evening.
The upper low passes just north of the CWA with an associated jet
rounding the southern edge of the system that will move over SE NM
and parts of West Texas. Highest winds will mainly be confined to
the mountains, but the adjacent plains and foothills will still see
gusts between 40-50mph. During this same time, a dryline sharpens on
a north-south line near Midland/Odessa southward towards Fort
Stockton and Marathon. Winds decrease east of this line with better
moisture return and a chance for showers and storms. Fire weather
concerns will be much lower for those areas.

Winds decrease late Monday evening, but the passage of a Pacific
front ushers in more dry air that hampers moisture recovery into
Tuesday morning. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions
will be seen Tuesday as RHs reach critical levels areawide. Winds
remain a factor, but less so compared to Monday. Further fire
weather products will be needed with future updates. Above average
temperatures and dry air with poor overnight recoveries linger
through midweek, further curing fuels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               59  93  62  92 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 56  88  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   59  94  63  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            61  93  64  98 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           57  79  60  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    53  87  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    50  87  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     59  91  62  92 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   60  91  64  92 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     57  92  61  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for Andrews-Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-
     Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Eastern Culberson County-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above
     7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Lower
     Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves
     County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night
     for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...44