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000
ACUS11 KWNS 160101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160100
NEZ000-SDZ000-160230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0449
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Areas affected...southwestern South Dakota into north central
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111...112...

Valid 160100Z - 160230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111, 112
continues.

SUMMARY...Initial thunderstorm development probably will weaken
while spreading toward northwestern/north central South Dakota, with
renewed thunderstorm development, including potential for a few
supercells, north of North Platte toward the Mullen vicinity through
9-10 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Beneath a focused area of divergent upper flow,
downstream of the mid-level low migrating northeast of the Four
Corners, thunderstorms have become numerous within a corridor of
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection.  This appears to be gradually
spreading to the north of the corridor of the better boundary-layer
moisture wrapping toward an initial surface low center over the
Nebraska Panhandle.  As this continues, this initial thunderstorm
activity seems likely to weaken as it ingests drier and more stable
air.  However, the environment remains favorable for renewed strong
to severe thunderstorm development, including supercells, within a
corridor northeast of North Platte toward Mullen NE, which will tend
to move northward/northeastward through late evening.

..Kerr.. 04/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   44360356 44190177 43400007 42769935 41669958 41600111
            42750193 43150265 43800381 43790378 44360356