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000
FXUS64 KMEG 201122
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
622 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A line of showers and storms across West Tennessee will slowly
diminish later this morning. Most of the area will experience dry
conditions for the weekend, with the exception of north
Mississippi as showers return this afternoon. A brief cool down
is expected as a reinforcing cold front will move through Sunday
night. Monday morning will be our coldest morning of the forecast
with lows in the upper 30s and 40s. Patchy frost may develop in
West Tennessee, particularly near the Tennessee River. A warming
trend will kick off Tuesday to return seasonable conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A line of showers and thunderstorms is stretched across northeast
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and West Tennessee as of 3 AM. This
is due to a weak shortwave trough that is stretched across from
Arkansas to middle Tennessee. This activity will continue through
sunrise and continue to pick up in coverage and intensity. Very
little accumulation (0.10" or less) is expected with this activity.
Locally higher amounts are possible for any weak thunderstorms that
may develop.

A weak open low pressure system will cross Texas as a surface cold
front stalls over north Mississippi. This will push the remaining
activity of our northern portions of the CWA and bring showers back
to north Mississippi. Dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to
upper 40s across Mississippi. Model soundings show a very stable 0-3
km layer and unstable lapse rates (~7 C/km) aloft. HREF
probabilities of lightning are low (20% or less) for this afternoon
and evening. Confidence is low on the northern extent of shower
coverage this afternoon and evening as an impeding high inches
closer to the northeast Arkansas and dries out the environment, but
slight chance and chance PoPs were carried across West Tennessee if
the dry air does not sink quick enough.

A reinforcing cold front will push the remaining showers out of the
region by Sunday afternoon. Dry and cool conditions will begin
tomorrow as the high pressure system centers over the region. Monday
morning will be our coldest day of the forecast period with lows in
the upper 30s and 40s. Light winds and clear skies will enhance
radiation cooling and patchy frost may develop in low lying areas
and near river basins, particularly in West Tennessee. Temperatures
will quickly rebound as return flow settles in and near normal
temperatures will return by Tuesday. There is a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms across northwest Tennessee Tuesday evening
as a weak front crosses Missouri and Kentucky. Widespread shower
chances aim to return Thursday.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Rain will continue to move across the Mid-South today with the
majority of the showers remaining over north Mississippi. The most
likely time for rain will be during the late evening and overnight
hours tonight. MVFR ceilings will cover portions of north
Mississippi this morning, otherwise VFR conditions are expected
for much of the forecast period. Winds will be mainly from the
northeast at 10 to 15 knots this morning with some higher gusts.
Winds will be mainly north at 5 to 10 knots by this evening.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...ARS