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000
FXUS64 KMEG 191601
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1101 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Zonal flow will keep conditions clouds across the Midsouth for
the next 24-48 hours. A few rain showers are possible in north
Mississippi, but most of us will remain dry. Surface high
pressure will slowly build across the Middle Mississippi River
Valley late Sunday allowing the sun to make an appearance. Expect
lows in the middle 50s to low 60s tonight with high temperatures
in the middle 60s to middle 70s tomorrow.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A line of showers and storms will slowly diminish early this
morning. Most of the area will experience dry conditions for the
weekend, with the exception of north Mississippi as showers return
Saturday. A brief cool down is expected as a reinforcing cold
front will move through Sunday night with lows in the 40s Sunday
morning and Monday morning. A warming trend will kick off Tuesday
to return seasonable conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A line of storms associated with an upper level trough and
associated cold front is nearly parallel to I-4O as of 3 AM. The
sinking air will aid in the fizzling out of precipitation chances
early this morning. A brief lull in shower activity is expected
Friday afternoon for most of the region. As the low and trough
pull away from the region, very light in coverage and accumulation
rain showers are possible tonight. Slight chance PoPs were
carried as there is low confidence in coverage and how quickly the
dry air behind the frontal boundary will arrive.

A weak open low pressure system will cross Texas as a surface cold
front stalls over north Mississippi. This will bring showers back to
the area, mainly in north Mississippi, due to the downstream
moisture.  After this round of showers, high pressure will gradually
begin to slide in by Sunday to return rainfree conditions.
Probabilities for thunder on Saturday are low as dewpoints are
forecast to be in the low 50s or less.

A reinforcing cold front will push the remaining showers out of the
region by Sunday evening. Cooler temperatures are associated with a
high pressure system as lows Monday morning are forecast to be in
the 40s. Monday will feel much cooler as dry air and brisk northerly
winds will prevail. Temperatures will begin to warm back to near and
above climatology early next week as return flow settles in.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A cold front has pushed through most of the area...soon to clear
TUP. Post frontal moisture is still in place across the Mid-South
causing widespread IFR conditions. Ceilings will slowly lift to
MVFR late this morning. Over running showers look to develop and
spread in from the west towards daybreak on Saturday impacting
MEM.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...DKJ