National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KMEG 200441
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1141 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A few scattered showers are skirting across the area this evening
along a weak shortwave trough. This should continue through the
early morning hours, picking up in coverage and intensity by
sunrise. The rest of the forecast is on track; expect cloudy skies
and temperatures in the low 60s tomorrow with intermittent
showers.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Cloudy conditions will persist through most of the weekend but
most of the rain/thunderstorms should end by Sunday afternoon. The
upcoming work week looks to start off cool but temperatures should
trend back to near normal after midweek. Rain and thunderstorms
will return to much of the region by Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Zonal flow is in place across much of the Mississippi River
Valley. A 125kt upper level jet is positioned from Missouri into
the Ohio Valley resulting in cloudy conditions across the
Midsouth. Conditions do not look to change much until late Sunday
when a very positively tilted trough swings out of the Plains.
Guidance is in fairly good agreement in bringing the trough axis
east of the Mississippi River Sunday evening which should result
in the first sighting of sunshine in several days. In the
meantime, periods of light showers and cloudy skies will
continue. A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out, but nothing
strong or severe is expected.

High pressure will build in from the west early in the work week
resulting in warming temperatures and dry conditions. However,
before the warmer conditions arrive, Monday should be our coolest
period out of the next seven days featuring morning lows in the
upper 30s to low 40s. Patchy frost is possible in west Tennessee,
especially near the Tennessee River. High temperatures Tuesday
and Wednesday should be near normal, in the low to middle 70s.
Another cold front will usher in a chance of rain and cooler
temperatures after midweek.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

MVFR cigs roughly cover the region south of I-40. Cigs will
gradually improve overnight as low level dry air works into the
region. Meanwhile a disturbance moving through the Mid MS Valley
will trigger a few SHRAs overnight and perhaps even a TSRA. VFR
cigs areawide are expected on Saturday. Another disturbance will
spread showers across the southern half of the Mid-South Saturday
afternoon and Saturday night. NE winds 7-10 kts overnight will
increase to 10-14 kts with some higher gusts Saturday morning.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...SJM