155
FXUS64 KMEG 272251
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
551 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A warming trend will continue through the rest of the weekend. A
line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to form ahead of a
cold front Sunday night into Monday, where strong to severe
storms capable of damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy
rainfall could occur. Warm and wet conditions are expected to
continue through the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A warming trend will continue today as mid-level ridging builds
ahead of a mid/upper level trough over the western and central
U.S. At the surface, a low pressure center was analyzed over the
OK/TX/KS/CO borders. A stationary boundary/warm front extended
northeastward across the central and southern Plains into the
upper Mid-West, with a cold front extending southward into
portions of western Texas. The surface low is expected to move
northeast in tandem with the mid-level trough. As this occurs, a
cold front will begin to move southeastward toward the Mid-South
tomorrow. Ahead of this front, low level wind fields are forecast
to increase as the pressure gradient tightens, resulting in
strong winds across the Mid-South tomorrow.

Moistening associated with this strong low-level southerly flow
will also eventually contribute to an unstable atmosphere with
mean MUCAPE values from the HREF grand ensemble coming in on the
order of nearly 500-1000 J/kg. This instability will be coupled
with 30-35 knots of effective shear, which should support storm
organization and longevity. Several CAMs depict a line of
prefrontal showers and thunderstorms that will enter the Mid-South
on sometime tomorrow evening, lasting through the late
evening/overnight hours. It appears that the the greatest threat
for strong/severe storms should be along and west of the
Mississippi River, though a stronger storm east of the Mississippi
River could also occur. While the main threats are expected to be
damaging winds and large hail, an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out at this time. Another concern pertains to precipitable
water values, associated with this activity, increasing to around
1.6 inches. This value exceeds the 90th percentile value for the
date, which may also promote a risk for heavy rainfall. The Mid-
South remains in a slight risk for excessive rainfall for both
tomorrow and Monday.

The front looks to approach the Mid-South by Tuesday morning, but
does not completely move through the Mid-South as upper-level
forcing pivots away from the region. The remainder of the forecast
will feature warm and wet conditions, as several mid-level
disturbances parse mostly zonal flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

LLWS (Southerly 180-190 at 40-50kt) will impact all TAF sites
tonight but subside tomorrow. Gradient winds tonight and tomorrow
will remain southerly 15-20kts with occasional gusts approaching
30kts. Showers/thunderstorms may approach MEM and JBR near the end
of their 24/30hr TAF cycles.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR
AVIATION...CJC