Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 221154 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
654 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Expect showers to develop across portions of the Mid-South today
before a cold front reaches the area this evening. Dry and cool
conditions will be in place this weekend before rain returns on
Monday. Slightly cooler temperatures return midweek with a
warming trend starting on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Shower activity will return to the Mid-South today as a low
pressure system treks across the Gulf Coast. The northward extent
of shower development will depend on how quickly a cold front
pushes into the region this afternoon. Overall, expect the bulk of
precipitation to remain along and south of I-40 with around 0.5
inches of rain expected in north Mississippi. Behind this system,
upper level ridging will keep the weekend dry with highs in the
50s and 60s.

On Monday, a shortwave trough will eject eastward from the Rockies
and approach the Mid-South. Kinematics associated with this system
remain favorable for severe weather development given the presence
of around 75 kts of bulk shear and SRH values around 250 m2/s2.
However, storm intensity will be greatly limited due to both
ECMWF/GEFS ensembles depicting a 0% chance for SBCAPE values
greater than 500 J/kg. In addition, Gulf moisture return will
struggle on Monday with dewpoints only reaching the mid 50s.
Therefore, the severe weather threat on Monday appears unlikely.
As such, the Storm Prediction Center has removed the highlighted
Slight Risk from our area.

The greater threat on Monday will be flooding. Precipitable Water
values are forecast to climb to around 1.5 inches by midday, which
is right at the 99th percentile for this time of year. Efficient
rainfall rates may aggravate rivers and streams during this time,
resulting in a flooding threat across the area.

By midday Tuesday,a cold front associated with the aforementioned
trough will swing across the area. Slightly cooler air returns on
Wednesday with afternoon highs in the 50s and 60s. By the end of
the work week, both the GFS/ECMWF depict an Omega Block developing
across CONUS. Stay tuned.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

A compact upper low will track east across the Arklamiss into
central MS this afternoon and evening. A rain shield around the
northern periphery of this system will primarily impact TUP, and
to a lesser extent MEM and MKL after 18Z. Afternoon VIS reductions
to MVFR would more likely be assoicated with the passage of an
inverted surface pressure trough, rather than relatively modest
rainfall rates.

After the upper low lifts into AL overnight, a surface cold front
will drop through the Midsouth, resulting in gusty surface winds
that will persist well into the day Saturday. CIG guidance varies
widely in this post-frontal airmass. In any case, the best IFR
potential will remain near TUP, with MVFR a better bet for MEM and
MKL toward 12Z Saturday.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB


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