Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 211703
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
103 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

High pressure centered off to the north continues to push into the
western Atlantic this afternoon. This will continue to keep most
of the region dry during this time frame, however, isolated to
scattered shower activity is developing over interior portion of
Southwest Florida as the Gulf breeze tries to push inland. These
showers will continue through the rest of this afternoon before
diminishing this evening.

As tonight progresses, all eyes turn towards a deepening mid level
trough currently over the Southern Plains. This trough will
gradually push eastward through the Gulf Coast states and Gulf of
Mexico on Friday and Friday night before eventually sweeping across
the Florida Peninsula on Saturday. At the surface, a developing area
of low pressure will move across the northern Gulf Coast on Friday
and then it will push off the Southeast coastline into the western
Atlantic Friday night into Saturday. At the same time, a secondary
low may try to develop over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
before pushing across South Florida and into the western Atlantic
on Friday night into Saturday morning. This rather complex
disturbance will bring the potential for multiple rounds of heavy
rainfall and the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms to
South Florida through the day on Friday and into Saturday
morning. The latest forecast model soundings continue to show deep
tropical moisture moving in from the south as PWAT values
increase to around 2 inches Friday night into Saturday morning
especially across southern areas. This is near the maximum values
for this time of year.

Uncertainty in the exact details remains high as the exact track
of that secondary low will play an important role in where the
heaviest rain sets up as well as where the best chances for strong
to severe thunderstorms take place. Some of the short term hi-res
guidance remains in disagreement in where this secondary low
tracks and how quick it develops as it pushes through the region.
The potential still exists for 3 to 6 inches of rain along and
south of Alligator Alley through Saturday and then 1 to 2 inches
across the Lake Okeechobee region. With the potential for heavy
rainfall, localized flooding may be possible especially across the
metro areas of Broward and Miami Dade County on Friday through
Saturday.

The potential for multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorm
development will exist over the region as this complex system
evolves. The first of these rounds will occur on Friday morning,
and then another round later Friday afternoon into Friday night
and early Saturday morning. With strong deep layer shear in place
combined with enough boundary layer destabilization, the stronger
storms could contain damaging wind gusts and maybe an isolated
tornado or two. Synoptic scale winds will also remain rather
strong across the region on Friday into Saturday as the pressure
gradient remains tight across South Florida. Non convective wind
gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible throughout the day
especially along the coastal areas on Friday as the pressure
gradient across the region remains tight.

The threat for heavy rainfall and strong to severe thunderstorms
will begin to diminish later on Saturday as the mid level trough
axis crosses the area and pushes to the east.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

High pressure will rebuild over the Florida Peninsula behind the
departing trough and associated cold front beginning Saturday night
through Sunday and into next week, which will bring back drier
weather through the middle of next week. Troughing will still exist
over the central U.S. next week, but the ridge over the area will
act to block positive vorticity advection from reaching South
Florida and force that energy off to the northeast. Therefore,
expect dry and comfortable weather for most of next week. Long term
guidance hints at the next trough impacting the area late next week,
but uncertainty is too high for that at this time.

Temperatures will gradually rise next week under the ridge to the
low to mid 80s by the middle of the week. Overnight lows will be in
the 60s most nights with only the east coast metro being close to 70
degrees each night after Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the evening hours. East
southeasterly winds will continue at 10 to 15 kts this afternoon
and tonight. These winds could gust up to 20 kts for brief periods
over the east coast terminals this afternoon. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase during the pre dawn hours at
KAPF, and then over the east coast terminals as the morning
progresses. This could lead to periods of MVFR or IFR conditions
beginning on Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

A moderate to fresh east to southeasterly wind flow will continue
through the rest of today across the Atlantic waters while moderate
winds remain over the Gulf of Mexico. Winds and seas will rapidly
increase across the Atlantic and Gulf waters creating hazardous
marine conditions as a developing area of low pressure pushes
through the region. There could be a brief period of Gale Force
wind gusts Friday night into early Saturday over the Atlantic
waters. Seas across the Atlantic waters could reach 7 to 10 feet
later on Friday and into Saturday. Hazardous marine conditions
could linger into early next week across the Atlantic waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic Coast
beaches through Friday evening as onshore flow increases. The rip
current risk will remain elevated over the Atlantic Coast beaches
through the weekend and into early next week as a northeasterly
swell develops. As winds become more west southwesterly this
weekend, the rip current risk over the Gulf Coast beaches will
increase during this time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            70  80  69  79 /  30  70 100  90
West Kendall     68  80  69  80 /  30  70 100  90
Opa-Locka        69  80  69  81 /  30  70 100  90
Homestead        69  80  69  80 /  30  70 100  90
Fort Lauderdale  69  80  69  79 /  30  70 100  90
N Ft Lauderdale  70  80  69  79 /  30  80 100  90
Pembroke Pines   69  80  69  81 /  30  70 100  90
West Palm Beach  68  79  67  78 /  30  80 100  80
Boca Raton       69  79  68  80 /  30  80 100  80
Naples           68  77  69  79 /  60  90  90  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Saturday
     for AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Saturday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...CWC


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