432
FXUS62 KMFL 022311
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
711 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Definitely a quieter evening over SFL compared to yesterday
thanks to encroaching ridging and associated warmer temperatures
aloft. Scattered showers have developed near the Gulf breeze in SW
FL although this activity has struggled to obtain vertical
development and produce lightning. This generally weak activity
will likely linger a couple hours into the early evening over
that area but otherwise a generally dry and mild tonight is
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

High pressure and ridging in the low to mid levels continues to
dominate the weather pattern across South Florida, keeping a typical
easterly regime in place. Convective activity will be very
limited today and Friday as drier air starts to filter in. Anything
that does manage to develop along sea breeze collisions will be
heavily focused over interior and Southwest Florida areas.

Outside of a rouge shower or thunderstorm, prevailing conditions
will be quite nice with partly cloudy skies and highs in the lower
to mid 80s. Across interior and southwest portions of the area,
afternoon highs will be a bit warmer in the upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 524 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Little to no fluctuation in the overall synoptic weather regime the
long term period, as stout mid-level ridging will maintain
predominately easterly flow across South Florida into next week.
This easterly surface flow will allow for the Atlantic sea-breeze
circulation to progressively move inland, and act as the foci for
convective initiation primarily over the interior. East coast metro
areas may experience a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm
during the early afternoon and towards the mid to late afternoon for
interior and southwest portions of the area. Overall rain chances
remain low through the period (generally below 20) as drier air and
the absence of synoptic forcing should limit any widespread
convective development. For the few showers and thunderstorms that
are able to develop, the most likely areas to experience convection
will be across the Everglades and Southwest Florida, owing to the
aforementioned easterly flow regime.

Temperatures will be near to just above normal through the extended
period. The highs will increase into the upper 80s across southwest
Florida and the interior region, while remaining in the low to mid
80s along the Atlantic Coast. The overnight lows will be in the 60s,
except for low to mid 70s across the east coast metro areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period,
although showers and storms in the vicinity of KAPF will be
possible over the next hour or two. A few showers may be possible
near the east coast Friday morning but feel probs are too low to
explicitly mention in this issuance. Generally easterly winds
prevail through the period with gusts to 20kts possible during
the day on Friday. KAPF will see an afternoon wind shift to the
W-SW again.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Mostly benign conditions will continue through the end of the week
and into the weekend. There will be chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms each day, which could create locally hazardous
conditions. Other than the convective threat, there is not
expected to be concerns for marine conditions. Seas will generally
remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less
in the Gulf waters. Winds will be around 10-15 kts out of the
east.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Breezy easterly flow will lead to an elevated risk for rip currents
across all Atlantic beaches through the remainder of the week and into
the upcoming weekend. Highest rip current risk today will be maximized
across the Palm Beach County beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            73  84  73  84 /  10  10  20  30
West Kendall     70  85  70  86 /  10  10  10  30
Opa-Locka        72  86  72  86 /  10  10  10  30
Homestead        72  84  73  84 /  10  10  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  73  83  73  83 /  10  10  20  40
N Ft Lauderdale  73  83  73  83 /  10  10  20  30
Pembroke Pines   73  87  73  87 /  10  10  20  30
West Palm Beach  70  84  71  84 /  10  10  10  30
Boca Raton       72  84  72  84 /  10  10  20  40
Naples           70  89  70  88 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...Carr