953
FXUS62 KMHX 032320
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
720 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue offshore today and into the weekend.
A slow moving cold front will linger over the area Saturday
before retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing
across the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will
lead to unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier
conditions are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing
heat and humidity as ridging builds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 715 PM Friday... Latest surface analysis shows previously
mentioned backdoor cold front beginning to stall along our
northern tier this evening with low stratus and patchy fog
beginning to encroach across the NOBX and our NE`rn zones this
evening. General expectation is for this low stratus to continue
to push SW`wards, eventually encompassing the entire area
tonight with some patchy fog also possible; mainly along areas
east of Hwy 17 where easterly onshore flow will trap low level
moisture below a low level inversion this evening. Still think
we remain dry overall as lows get into the low to mid 60s.

Prev Disc...Back door cold front is making its way through NE
portions of the CWA, winds shifting to become easterly behind
it. Isallobaric winds are trailing behind this cold front.
Models seem to be underforecasting the wind gusts behind the
back door cold front, with gusts of 20-25kts observed to our
north. Strengthening of the pressure gradient behind the front
as it moves south will likely bring wind gusts higher than what
models are suggesting. With some increased moisture convergence
west of the Pamlico river as the sea breeze pushes inland and
encounters the back door cold front, we could see isolated
sprinkles in the area of convergence this evening. The backdoor
front stalls out over the CWA tonight where it will linger
through the first half of the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Saturday will start off cloudy, low cloud
cover slowly rising with the help of daytime heating. Weak cold
front will remain over ENC with east/southeasterly flow
expected most of the day. Stable onshore flow will limit
instability development, and with drier air holding on across
the area for most of the day, it is looking to be a mostly dry
day with the exception of the coastal plain where some isolated
shower/thunderstorm development may occur. Temperatures will
remain above normal but a bit cooler than Friday with highs
ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s (cooler along the coast
with the onshore flow).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As 315 AM Fri...A weak cold front will dip southward into the
Carolinas this weekend with some scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible. Unsettled weather will continue for the
first half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East
Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week
drier conditions will return but will be accompanied by an
increase in heat and humidity.

Sunday...Winds will veer to the south Sunday as the front
retreats to the north. However this will bring better
moisture/instability to the area and allow for scattered showers
and thunderstorms to develop Sunday afternoon with the most
widespread rain across the coastal plain. Similar temps expected
with highs in the 70s to low 80s.

Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will rebuild well offshore
early next week while weak troughing remains along the Eastern
Seaboard. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, diurnally
enhanced showers and thunderstorms will develop with the best
chances again over the coastal plain. Highs will reach the upper
70s to low 80s again Monday with increasing low level
thicknesses boosting Tuesday`s highs into the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday and Thursday...Drier conditions are expected mid week
as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. However,
increasing low level thicknesses and continued southerly flow
will lead to hot and humid conditions will afternoon highs
reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and the low to mid 80s
closer to the coast. Some isolated airmass showers and
thunderstorms are also possible each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 715 PM Friday... Mainly VFR ceilings and vis across ENC
with the lone exception being across the NOBX and far NE`rn
zones where low stratus and patchy fog have begun to advect
SW`wards across the area behind a stalling cold front resulting
in a mix of IFR/LIFR ceilings. Current forecast has this low
stratus continuing to march SW`wards eventually impacting EWN
and OAJ first between 06-08Z and then PGV/ISO next around 8-10Z.
As a result, MVFR ceilings are forecast across all terminals
for a brief time between 05-08Z followed quickly by IFR/LIFR
ceilings. In addition to this, with low level E`rly flow
advecting inland, some patchy fog is likely as well primarily
east of Hwy 17 across EWN/OAJ terminals though ISO could see a
brief period of lower vis early Sat morning as well. This fog
threat is fairly conditional and more likely due to low stratus
developing into fog overnight but did want to include reduced
vis in the forecast given the fairly strong signal across the
HI-Res guidance. Through tonight winds generally remain light
and variable. Fog will dissipate by 13Z, but sub-VFR ceilings
will linger into the early afternoon with IFR ceilings lifting
from west to east between 13-16Z and MVFR ceilings then lifting
to VFR conditions by Sat afternoon. Could see an iso shower or
tstm especially across ISO/PGV Sat afternoon as well but
confidence is too low to include this in the TAF`s.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Generally VFR conditions are expected
through early next week, however increasingly unsettled
conditions could lead to moments of sub- VFR conditions each
afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 340 PM Friday...MWS has been issued for
Albemarle/Croatan/Roanoke sounds and the Alligator River, along
with coastal waters from Duck to Oregon Inlet this evening for a
quick wind shift from westerly to easterly and gusty conditions
behind a back door cold front. Potential exists for infrequent
gusts of 30kts between 5-8pm today for the Albemarle sound, as
easterly flow results in funneling. As we get into tonight gusts
will lessen to 10-15kts behind the front. Winds will remain
east/southeasterly tomorrow, sustained 10 kts gusting to 15 kts.
Seas are calm today, starting to build from the north overnight
into Saturday. By Saturday evening, waves will be 2-4ft for
coastal waters, highest north and east of Hatteras.

Fog threat persists into the weekend for coastal waters, sounds,
and rivers once again.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Decent boating conditions are expected this
weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next
week.

Winds will come around to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts. SW
winds then develop Monday through most of next week with winds
increasing to 10-20 kts. Seas will be generally 2-4 ft through
Monday and then increase to 3-5 ft Tuesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/RCF
MARINE...SGK/RJ