142
FXUS64 KMOB 272334
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
634 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

VFR conditions should mainly prevail for the next 24 hours,
although a brief period of MVFR ceilings will attempt to develop
tomorrow morning just after sunrise for a few hours. Otherwise,
breezy southeasterly winds of around 10-15 knots will continue
through tonight, becoming gusty again tomorrow for the late
morning and afternoon hours. Winds throughout the day tomorrow
could gust up to 30 knots. /96

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

An upper level ridge will remain in place along the Southeastern
Seaboard through the weekend as an upper low pivots across the
central US. This pattern will result in a southwesterly flow aloft
over the local area. Down at the surface, a tight pressure
gradient has developed in response to a surface high pressure
along the east coast/western Atlantic and an area of surface low
pressure over the Plains. This pressure gradient has resulted in
breezy southeasterly winds today with gusts up to 30-35 mph being
reported at times. Winds are expected to ease slightly overnight
with breezy conditions re-developing especially near to the coast
on Sunday. Given the lack of appreciable forcing and deep layer
moisture, conditions are expected to remain dry through most of
the period. The exception to this will be on Sunday over parts of
southeast Mississippi where weak isentropic ascent could lead to
an isolated shower or storm. Hi-res guidance continues to indicate
this potential so have maintained the 15-20% PoP forecast over
southeast Mississippi for Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, expect to
see very similar conditions continue on Sunday with another decent
cumulus field and passing mid/upper level clouds resulting in
partly cloudy skies.

Beach Note: Persistent onshore flow will result in deadly rip
currents and increased surf heights along all area beaches through
the weekend. Local lifeguards reported flying red and double red
beach warning flags today, meaning that the Gulf Waters are closed
to the public. The HIGH risk of rip currents remains in effect
through the weekend and into early next week. A High Surf Advisory
also remains in effect through Monday for large breaking waves of
4- 6 feet at all area beaches and possibly even up to 7 feet on
Sunday for portions of the western Florida panhandle. /14

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

An upper ridge over the eastern CONUS deamplifies and shifts
eastward into Monday followed by the base of an upper shortwave
passing over the region Monday afternoon into Tuesday. An upper
ridge rebuilds a bit over the Southeast midweek, with a second
upper shortwave passing over the region late in the week. A
surface ridge extending from the Atlantic westward across the
region will remain persistent, maintaining a slight southerly
surface wind across the forecast area throughout the week. The
highest precipitable H20 values should occur Monday afternoon and
evening (1.5"-1.8") and from the mid/late part of the week. Best
combination of moisture and decreased subsidence remains west of
the forecast area Monday into Monday night, and with that, best
chance of rain is expected to be along and west of the Alabama
River. Rain chances shift east for Tuesday as the tongue of
moisture shifts east. Guidance indicates enough instability with
SBCapes rising into the 800-1200J/kg range along and west of the
Alabama on Monday, and into the 1000-2000J/kg range on Tuesday to
include a chance of thunderstorms eastward over the entire
forecast area. Wind shear remains limited with the shifting of the
surface ridge helping to keep wind shear low, so am expecting the
chance of organized strong to severe storms to be low.

Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal norms, with
subsidence from the eastern upper ridge remaining strong enough
over the Southeast. High temperatures in the mid to at times upper
80s are expected over inland areas, around 80 along the coast.
Low temperatures are expected to range from around 60 over central
Alabama to mid to upper 60s over portions of inland southeast
Mississippi and along the coast. /22

MARINE...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for much of the marine
area through late Sunday night for southeasterly winds averaging
between 15-25 kts and frequent gusts up to around 30 kt possible.
Seas are also expected to build up to 6-8 feet offshore during
this time. Southeasterly winds gradually diminish with subsiding
seas during the early to middle part of the upcoming week. /14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      66  81  67  82  66  82  66  84 /   0  10   0  20  30  40   0  10
Pensacola   69  79  68  80  67  81  67  82 /   0   0   0  10  20  30   0   0
Destin      69  78  68  79  68  79  68  81 /   0   0   0   0  10  10   0   0
Evergreen   62  84  59  84  62  83  62  88 /   0   0   0  10  20  40   0  10
Waynesboro  62  84  62  84  62  83  63  86 /   0  20   0  50  50  40   0  20
Camden      63  82  59  84  62  83  61  86 /   0  10   0  20  40  40   0  10
Crestview   62  84  59  84  60  84  61  88 /   0   0   0   0  10  20   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for GMZ630>634-650-
     655-670-675.

&&

$$

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