358
FXUS61 KOKX 022227
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
627 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front passes offshore this evening followed by high
pressure building down the New England coast through Friday. The
high retreats farther offshore on Saturday as a frontal system
approaches from the west. This system moves slowly through the
region Saturday night into Sunday with the associated cold front
passing through Monday. The front then stalls south of the region
and moves back north as a warm front Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold
front approaches for Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front was moving through the lower Hudson Valley and into
northeastern New Jersey at 22Z and will finally pass through
coastal areas early this evening. Behind it, ridging builds in
both aloft and at the surface through Friday. The surface high
will build down from eastern Canada and along the New England
coast during this time. As it does, NE winds will strengthen a
bit tonight along with some low-level moisture working back in
from along the New England coast. This will allow for partly to
mostly cloudy skies to move in from the NE for the second half
of the night, but this should be short- lived as some drier
mixes into the area on Friday.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, warmest
across the NYC metro. Highs then warm up into the upper 50s and
lower 60s along the coast, and 65-70 inland. This is slightly
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure gradually retreats offshore during this time as a
slow moving frontal system approaches from the SW. This will
allow for increasing clouds Friday night into Saturday. ESE
winds will continue during this time with temperatures remaining
several degrees below normal, in fact it will be cooler for
inland area versus the previous day due to increase in clouds
and onshore flow. Warm advection could bring a few showers in
late in the day, mainly north and west of NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper level ridge axis shifts offshore late Saturday night
into early Sunday and the flow becomes near zonal into early
next week. A longwave upper trough across eastern Canada
amplifies into the northeast Tuesday and moves offshore by
Wednesday as another upper ridge builds to the west of the area
and moves into the region, while beginning to flatten,
Wednesday. The upper flow again become nearly zonal as a tough
becomes sheared out across the northern plains and Great Lakes
region Wednesday night into Thursday. At the surface one frontal
system slowly approaches from Saturday night through Sunday,
while slowly weakening, as the system moves into the upper
ridge. Another system passes well to the north with its cold
front passing through the region Monday. The trend for these
systems Saturday night through Monday as be slower as the upper
ridge over the western Atlantic remains highly amplified. The
stalled frontal boundary to the south begins to track north as a
warm front Monday night and is expected to the north during
Wednesday. The area remains warm sectored Thursday as low
pressure over the northern plains become sheared. Temperatures
will be near to below normal Saturday night into Sunday, then
average above normal Sunday night through Thursday, with the
warmest days being Wednesday and Thursday. Generally followed
the NBM guidance, and for the days with higher temperature
spreads, and potential for warmer conditions blended the NBM and
75th percentile. There is still a possibility that a few
locations could set record high minimum temperatures Tuesday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally VFR across all terminals through the TAF period.
However, there may still be some brief IFR or MVFR ceilings
along the immediate coastal portions of Long Island this evening
as a stubborn stratus deck remains in close proximity to
coastal areas. Also, later tonight and early on Friday
additional stratus may work its way back off the coastal waters.
Best timing for stratus late tonight is 10-14z Friday and have
included a Tempo group across eastern terminals but this may
change depending on the extent of the marine layer overnight.
Stratus is not expected to be as widespread as previous nights.

Winds will shift to the west this evening 10-15kt with gusts to
20 kt possible, even across coastal areas. Gusts diminish
overnight. W winds will shift to N/NE and then E by Friday
morning less than 10 kt. SE winds are expected by midday on
Friday around 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments are likely for timing of wind shifts and associated
wind speed.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18z Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers and MVFR
conditions in the afternoon, increasing chances overnight.

Sunday...Likely showers, with MVFR or lower conditions. ESE
winds G15-20kt.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Fog and low clouds have drifted south, and was south of the
eastern ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet. Winds will shift to
the north and bring in drier air behind a cold front. NE winds
behind the cold front later this evening increase 10-15 kt by
morning with gusts below 25 kt. Winds will then gradually
diminish on Friday. A weak pressure gradient then maintains sub-
advisory conditions across the waters Friday night through the
middle of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through the period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW