949
FXUS63 KPAH 290459
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1159 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front`s approach tonight will drive a line of storms
  into/across the area. There remains a conditional risk of
  severe weather by late this evening, mainly in SEMO. East of
  the Mississippi River...the threat transitions more to heavy
  rain/isolated flash flooding.

- Daily rain chances return over the back half of the week along
  with continued unseasonably mild temperatures in the 70s and
  80s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Updated aviation section for 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The 12Z Cams are a tad slower than the 00Z solutions, moving a
line of convection to our Ozarks doorstep by about 04Z. How much
instability remains at that time is in question, mostly focused
across SEMO. That`s where the best chance for surface based/near
severe storms will be, at least til around/shortly after
midnight. After that, the line shifts east of the MS where
instability wanes, and we transition more to a heavy
rain/isolated flooding threat. The heaviest rains yesterday fell
near/just east of Poplar Bluff in SEMO, so that area will need
to be watched closely for additional heavy rains with a lower
threshold there potentially causing some localized flooding
issues. Otherwise the storm total 1-2" amounts should be mostly
absorbed but as always locally higher totals or in more
sensitive areas to flooding will need to be monitored closely
for flooding issues.

Despite a late night-early Monday diminishing trend, there will
still be ample warmth/moisture to help diurnal destabilization
and additional shower/storm activity to come to fruition during
the daytime Monday. Ultimately an open waved low pushes it on
thru and ends pops west to east across the area Monday night.

Tuesday-Wednesday look dry and seasonally mild, with highs in
the upper 70s to mid 80s. We`ll begin to get caught between
the evolving upper pattern of ridging to our east and troffing
to our west by the latter portion of the week, so daily rain
chances set in by then. Warm 70s and 80s still look to hold thru
the week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Shra/tsra will spread across TAF sites overnight, reaching
KCGI/KMVN around 09z, KPAH around 10z, and KEVV/KOWB at 12-14z.
Isolated convection is expected 2-3 hours ahead of these
showers/storms. Numerous shra/scattered tsra expected much of
the day tomorrow. Low VFR/MVFR cigs and MVFR vsbys expected with
convection. Winds will be from the south to southwest at
10-15kts, with some occasional gusts, especially with any
thunderstorms/heavy showers.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...RST