Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 262031
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
331 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures are expected tonight through
  Wednesday night. A brief, light freeze is possible over the
  Ozark Foothills of southeast Missouri and over much of
  southern Illinois.

- A warming trend is expected through Monday, when the entire
  region will be in the mid to upper 70s. Well above normal
  temperatures are expected for Friday through Monday.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms return Friday night and
  continue off and on through the weekend, mainly for the
  northern half of the area.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected
  accompany a cold frontal passage at some point Monday into
  next Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Southwest to west winds this afternoon will gradually wind down
through the evening, but should continue around 5kts through
the night. Considerable cloud cover is also expected for much
of the night, especially over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois. Both of these factors should hold temperatures up for
most of the night and will make it difficult to have an
impactful freeze. The NBM was followed closely and it still has
lows going down to 30 to 32 degrees for an hour or two over the
Ozark Foothills and north of Highway 13 in southern Illinois.

Surface high pressure will settle over the region by Wednesday
night, which will likely lead to more widespread light freezing
conditions. Dewpoints will be in the upper 20s, so with
radiational cooling a decent bet, much of the region should drop
into upper 20s to lower 30s. A hard freeze is unlikely and the
freezing conditions should be limited to just a few hours.

South winds will return on Thursday and that will allow the
warming trend to begin. Most locations should be around normal
levels Thursday and Thursday night. South winds will increase
significantly and become gusty Friday which will allow
temperatures to climb well above normal. They will remain well
above normal through the weekend and into Monday, as south winds
continue to increase.

There is good agreement amongst most of the latest guidance in a
low amplitude upper ridge developing over the area on Friday.
With nearly zonal flow coming from the Plains, a nice elevated
mixed layer will eventually overspread the region. This should
result in a capping inversion as the entire region remains in
the warm sector. There continues to be some variability amongst
the guidance in where the primary frontal boundary will set up
to our north and in the possibility of it trying to sag into
northern portions of the region over the weekend. The NBM has
small chance PoPs mainly in the north Friday night, and again
Saturday night into Sunday.

Guidance continues to bring a cold front and widespread showers
and thunderstorms through the region Monday night into next
Tuesday. Given that we will be in the confluence zone of a
northern and southern stream storm system, it is too early to
comment on any severe weather or heavy rainfall potential.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

A cold front will move eastward out of the region by 20Z. A few
showers will be possible ahead of it at KOWB. 3-4kft ceilings
will develop/spread eastward across all of the TAF sites this
afternoon. They should linger through the evening and eventually
clear overnight. West southwest winds will gust 20-30kts through
the afternoon and then become light from the west northwest in
the evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS


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