Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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788 FXUS63 KPAH 270507 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1207 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple chances of rain and storms forecast through next week with the most widespread rains expected late Sunday through Monday evening. - Severe storms are possible mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois late this afternoon into tonight and again late Sunday into Sunday night. - South winds will gust up to 30 mph Saturday, and 30-40 mph Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Updated aviation section for 06z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 As of this afternoon an upper level shortwave was evident in WV imagery moving into the northern plains while a surface low was moving into NE. A warm front extends from this low across E KS, C MO, and into portions of W KY. Visible imagery shows extensive clearing has taken place across W KY and W TN. This area seems to have a pocket of dry air aloft which should keep things clear this afternoon, albeit the increasing instability. The line of showers and embedded thunderstorms that was located across south central MO this morning has fallen apart as it moved away from better forcing parked to the west. Additional development was noted across NW AR and SW MO that is lifting northeast. This seems to be resolved well in the CAMs. Additional chances of showers and thunderstorms may be possible this afternoon and overnight mainly across SE MO and southern IL. The main threat from this activity would be damaging winds with the probability of strong/severe storms still low given that the better forcing is well west and meager instability. Another disturbance and associated low pressure center will develop across the plains this weekend and will gradually move north into the Great Lakes Sunday into Sunday night. A strengthening pressure gradient between the low situated in the plains, and a surface high off the East Coast will bring breezy south winds this weekend. A boundary is expected to move through the Quad State late Sunday into Monday and will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area. At this time, the warm sector airmass looks to be characterized by meager instability. The southern end of an h50 jet max will likely bring increasing bulk shear through the region although this jet core will be lifting out rather quickly. Thus, the environment doesn`t look overly impressive and favorable for severe weather across our area, and the current thinking remains the same that a line of storms will likely be moving through the region with a weakening trend. A damaging wind risk seems possible with any stronger convection. Heavy rains, especially in any convection, will be possible as the system moves through with PWAT values near 1.50 inches. Not expected any widespread flooding issues given the progressive nature of this system. Guidance favors a more zonal upper level pattern taking shape Tuesday through Thursday. Additionally, we will remain a southerly flow regime through much of the week favoring a moist and warm airmass with temperatures climbing into the 80`s. This pattern suggests chances of showers and storms at times which the NBM has a good handle on. With that said, models haven`t been in solid agreement over the past few days leading to lower confidence during this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 At KCGI/KMVN, VFR conditions expected with scattered shra between through 09z. KCGI could again see some isolated to scattered shra/tsra between 15z-21z. MVFR vsbys possible with convection. At KPAH, VFR conditions expected with scattered shra between 06z-09z, with isolated shra possible between 15z-21z. At KEVV/KOWB, conditions will be VFR with potential LLWS between until 14z at 020/19040kt. At all sites, surface winds will be from the south to southeast at 7-14kts with gusts of 18-23kts, increasing to 10-20kts with gusts around 25 kts after 13z. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AD AVIATION...RST