Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 231721
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1221 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Satellite loops show the Low circulating northwestward across west
Tennessee. The models are now wobbling it into or near southwest
KY/far southeast MO thru the better part of the day. The Low
essentially winds on top of itself, becoming more vertically
stacked, as it drifts back across west TN tonight. From mid
morning, to early evening, therefore, parts of our south and east
will have sufficient instability and proximity to the Low itself,
to support a slight chance of thunder. In these areas, namely
southern KY and the southern Pennyrile, we might add another inch
of rainfall ontop of what has already fallen. Amounts will taper
off to the north and west from there. Most of the effective QPF
will be today, and with the Low drifting slowly to the east
beginning tonight, we`ll continue to linger showers but
appreciable QPF will be all but over for the main storm total
event.

Seasonally cool temps will continue due to clouds/rain. While
there will be a couple periods for potentially better clearing,
namely Tuesday night and Wednesday night, overall, there will be
more clouds than not through the mid week.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Confidence in the long term portion of the forecast is higher than
average owing to relatively good model agreement during the period.

Shortwave energy slated to reach the Pacific Coast of Canada Tuesday
night is forecast to dive southeast into the base of the mean trough
over the eastern U.S. during the latter half of the week. This will
encourage the passage of a cold front through the middle
Mississippi Valley on Friday, resulting in a good chance of
showers. The best chance of showers appears to be on Friday, but
may begin as early as late Thursday night over western portions of
the area and continue as late as Friday evening in eastern
portions. While not completely absent, forecast instability is
marginal enough to leave out the mention of thunder for the time
being.

Beyond Friday, an upper level ridge centered along the range of the
Rockies will shift east into the Mississippi Valley over the weekend
as High pressure takes control at the surface. This will result
in a return to dry conditions next weekend. While temperatures
initially will be slightly below normal Thursday through Saturday,
a warming trend is expected late in the weekend and early next
week as south winds develop on the back side of the departing
high. Highs Thursday through Saturday in the 60s should jump into
the 70s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Low VFR to MVFR cig and vsby conditions anticipated through the
end of the day with scattered convection continuing. Surface low
pressure should track along the KY/TN border with mainly east
winds 6 to 12 kts continuing, transitioning to northeast and then
north later tonight and Tuesday as the low eventually moves on to
our east. We may see cigs lower back to solid MVFR to low end IFR
later tonight through Tuesday morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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