000
FXUS63 KPAH 241904
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
204 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heightened fire danger across portions of the Ozarks and the
  southeast MO Bootheel this afternoon and early evening due to
  relative humidity in the 20s percentile and occasionally gusty
  winds.

- Lows in the upper 30s tonight north of I-64, combined with
  mostly clear skies and light winds, may allow for some patchy
  frost to develop just before daybreak.

- A week ending warmup will see daily storm chances through the
  weekend into early next week. The best chances will be late
  Friday into Friday night, and late Sunday-Monday.

- Gusty winds 30-40 mph are possible Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Relative humidity in the 20s percentile will combine with
occasionally gusty winds to heighten fire danger across SEMO
this afternoon and early evening. But as high pressure slowly
moves east, and low pressure takes shape to our west, we`ll see
dew points start to creep upward with time, and relative
humidity follow accordingly.

Lows tonight may dip into the upper 30s north of I-64, and
combined with mostly clear skies and light winds, it`s possible
there could be some patchy frost develop just before daybreak.

A week ending warmup will transform our environment as our next
storm system takes shape in the Plains. A few 80s that appear by
Friday become more commonplace over the weekend. Similarly, dew
points move into the upper 50s and lower 60s by then. The
increasingly unstable warm sector we develop will see pcpn
chances enter the picture from the west by late Thursday,
gradually work into/across the FA into the weekend. However, the
latest model trends for tracking this developing Plains low
pressure system is to lift it into the Midwest, or a little
further westward track than previous runs. As a result, SPC has
shifted the slight risk svr to the west of our CWA. Still, late
Friday-Friday night offers our next best chance of storms.

Perhaps our overall best chance of storms though comes late
Sunday into Sunday night. With a more firmly established
warm/moist environ., another low pressure system takes shape in
similar fashion to the Friday one. It too lifts out of the
Plains toward the Midwest, showing the same westward shift in
its track that the Friday system showed. SPC likewise shifted
the slight risk svr a little further west as a result, just
touching our western Ozark counties in SEMO. Late Sunday-Sunday
night still looks to be our overall best chance of storms,
including for some heavier rains, as average storm total qpf
looks to be around/about an inch or so.

With the high shifted east and the low pressure systems
approaching from the west, we remain warm sectored and firmly
in the tightened gradient between. As a result, we see breezy
south winds this weekend...with gusts approaching 30-40 mph at
times Friday-Sunday. And given that the storm tracks trend to
stay west and there is no real change/invasion of a colder air
mass, we continue with the seasonally warm temperatures into at
least the first half of next week...with highs in the upper
70s-lower 80s and lows in the mid 50s-around 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SCT diurnal bases up to 6K FT AGL are possible this afternoon.
As high pressure shifts east and low pressure takes shape to the
west, we`ll start to see some of its higher clouds move in over
the back half, and particularly the planning phase hours, of
the forecast. Winds will veer from north to east with time, in
response to the movement of the aforementioned pressure systems.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$