Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 210449

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1149 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Updated aviation section for 06z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 520 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

A Winter Wx Advisory has been issued for sw Indiana and a few
counties in nw Kentucky tonight. Surface temps have been lower
than forecast, averaging around 32 degrees at kevv/kowb/kehr the
past couple hours. This has allowed snow to accumulate to nearly
an inch in some areas. The snow has accumulated mainly on grassy
areas so far, but pavement temps will likely start to cool as the
sun goes down. The latest hrrr/rap model runs indicate snow will
continue to rotate southward across the advisory area through
about 06z. Latest kvwx radar verifies this is the case.
Surrounding the advisory area, snow amounts have been increased to
about an inch. Impacts will be relatively minor there.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Cyclone energy induced rain/snow mix this pm is allowing falling
(frozen) pcpn to mostly melt this pm, so minimal impacts are
occurring. This should remain the case during these daylight
hours, with temperatures above freezing, and dew point depressions
ranging upwards to 10F in some spots in our north.

After nightfall, concern grows with cooling blayer temps, however,
best mean rh profile and energy works east. Drier air working
down the column shuts off the big flake potential as well. Will
continue with the Pop and the associated SPS for potential
minor impacts, but stay shy of accumulations/headlines. This
strategy has worked well thus far, and think it will into the
evening too.

Tmrw looks improving, but the continued back side of the cyclone
input flow leans us toward a slightly more pessimistic sky
forecast than numerical guidance would suggest. We`ve slightly
massaged (within the collab pic) the forecast sky and temps to
account for that consideration.

Thursday-Thursday night sees our next development/system to bring
Pops. The builder input temps are warmer, so any freezing/frozen
chances are now north and east of the FA. As such, chance showers
prevails to end the work week.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

The PAH forecast area will still be under relatively cool
northwesterly flow aloft at the beginning of the extended forecast
period. Fri night, the medium range models indicated a surface warm
front will develop across the southern half of our region, or
possibly just south of the AR/TN state line. Sat, the front is
expected to move further north into our region as the parent surface
low approaches from the west. As a result, warm moist air will flow
northeastward over cooler surface air. This should result in a high
PoP, limited QPF (less than half an inch) scenario, except perhaps
north of I-64, closer to the mid level shortwave where more large
scale lift may be present (somewhat more QPF). Lightning is expected
to isolated at best, and generally west of the MS River. PoPs should
begin to erode from the west Sat afternoon and especially Sat night
as the system begins to depart, and low level winds shift to the
northwest initially, ushering in drier air.

The second half of the weekend looks dry under weak high surface
pressure and ridging aloft. The finer details in the models are more
uncertain by the Sun night/Mon and beyond time frame, but overall,
the deterministic models suggested a reasonably similar longwave
pattern across the CONUS. Model consensus suggested that PoPs will
generally increase early next week across our region due to a
southwesterly warm advection pattern aloft. Perhaps there could be
some heavy rain potential next week for parts of the region.

Expect mild temperatures through the extended period, with highs
close to seasonable levels.


Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Light snow at KEVV/KOWB will end by around 09z. MVFR vsbys
possible with snow.  MVFR/IFR cigs will improve to VFR between
07z-11z. At KCGI/KPAH, VFR conditions expected overnight, with
mainly scattered mid/high clouds after 14z. At all sites, winds
overnight will be from the northwest at 4-9 kts, increasing to 10
to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts after 13z, then becoming light to calm
after 00z.


IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM CDT Wednesday for INZ081-082-

KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM CDT Wednesday for KYZ018>020.



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