Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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395 FXUS63 KPAH 281837 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 137 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front`s approach tonight will drive a line of storms into/across the area. There remains a conditional risk of severe weather by late this evening, mainly in SEMO. East of the Mississippi River...the threat transitions more to heavy rain/isolated flash flooding. - Daily rain chances return over the back half of the week along with continued unseasonably mild temperatures in the 70s and 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 The 12Z Cams are a tad slower than the 00Z solutions, moving a line of convection to our Ozarks doorstep by about 04Z. How much instability remains at that time is in question, mostly focused across SEMO. That`s where the best chance for surface based/near severe storms will be, at least til around/shortly after midnight. After that, the line shifts east of the MS where instability wanes, and we transition more to a heavy rain/isolated flooding threat. The heaviest rains yesterday fell near/just east of Poplar Bluff in SEMO, so that area will need to be watched closely for additional heavy rains with a lower threshold there potentially causing some localized flooding issues. Otherwise the storm total 1-2" amounts should be mostly absorbed but as always locally higher totals or in more sensitive areas to flooding will need to be monitored closely for flooding issues. Despite a late night-early Monday diminishing trend, there will still be ample warmth/moisture to help diurnal destabilization and additional shower/storm activity to come to fruition during the daytime Monday. Ultimately an open waved low pushes it on thru and ends pops west to east across the area Monday night. Tuesday-Wednesday look dry and seasonally mild, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. We`ll begin to get caught between the evolving upper pattern of ridging to our east and troffing to our west by the latter portion of the week, so daily rain chances set in by then. Warm 70s and 80s still look to hold thru the week`s end. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 SCT-BKN mainly VFR bases can be expected until a cold front pushes a line of storms into/across the terminals tonight- Monday. CIGS/VSBYS will deteriorate thru MVFR with its approach, with showers/storms becoming prevalant. IFR bases appear with/after the line moves thru, so by the planning phase hours of the forecast, look for low clouds to sock in and perhaps linger a few showers. Daytime improvement will be slow/gradual but restricted bases will remain til or aft 18Z. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$