702
FXUS63 KPAH 291151
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
651 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms will slowly push east
  across the Quad State through this evening and then exit the
  area overnight. A few strong to severe storms with mainly a
  damaging wind threat will be possible early this morning over
  our border regions in southeast Missouri and southern
  Illinois. Localized heavy rainfall will be possible
  throughout the region.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through the entire 7 day
  period. Wednesday and Thursday will be rather hot with high
  temperatures in the mid and upper 80s, which would be 10
  degrees or more above normal.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms are forecast daily from
  Thursday through next Monday. The primary chances will be late
  Thursday through Friday, and at some point Sunday into next
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The primary area of convection early this morning has lifted
northeast and as of 08Z was just northwest of the Quad State.
Mesoanalysis indicates that instability is weak and will become
virtually nil east of the Mississippi River. Shear is
concerning, but also tends to weaken as we head toward daybreak.
A stray storm may be able to produce some gusty winds over
southeast Missouri for the next couple of hours, but the overall
severe weather threat across the region is very low.

The primary storm system will lift northeast into MN/WI this
afternoon, as a southern stream disturbance pushes eastward out
of the southern Plains. The surface front becomes very diffuse
and never really pushes into or through the Quad State. Instead
the pressure gradient just weakens to the point that we have
light and variable winds from late today through Tuesday.

The southern stream system will effectively hold up the
progress of the convection and will lead to an increase in
intensity and coverage over the eastern half of the region this
afternoon and evening. Instability will be meager in the east
and shear will weaken significantly, so severe weather is not
anticipated. However, with high precipitable water values, a
slow eastward movement of the primary area of convection, and
some potential for training, some localized areas of heavy
rainfall will be possible. WPC QPF suggests that a narrow swath
of over 2+" of rainfall is possible this afternoon and evening.
Some isolated flooding problems cannot be ruled out. The
rainfall should come to an end from the west through the night,
but a few showers could linger into Tuesday morning in the far
east.

The flow aloft will become zonal Tuesday and then a ridge will
briefly build over the region Wednesday. That should lead to dry
weather both days. By Thursday, southwest flow aloft will
develop and the tail end of a storm system will bring some at
least scattered convection eastward across the Quad State at
some point late Thursday through Friday. At this time, the
combination of instability, shear, and forcing does not seem to
be sufficient to produce a significant threat of severe storms
or heavy rainfall.

With the upper ridge building Wednesday and southerly winds
developing at the surface, temperatures will soar well into the
80s throughout the region Wednesday and Thursday. A few 90
degree readings are not out of the question Thursday. The
general consensus of the latest guidance is that a cold front
will push through the entire region with the late week system.
This will lead to a modest cool down as we head into next
weekend, but we will remain a few degrees above normal.

Winds will return from the south by Sunday as another storm
system approaches the area. Guidance is not in very good
agreement in the details of this system, but there is a decent
chance that more convection could reach the Quad State at some
point Sunday into next Monday. In the absence of convection
temperatures will climb well above normal again by next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 651 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Showers over southern Illinois, including KMVN, at the
beginning of the period will gradually spread east and develop
southward through the region. MVFR visibilities in rain will be
possible. It will come to an end from the west beginning late
this afternoon. MVFR ceilings in the west to begin the period
are expected to linger through the day and then lift by sunset.
Farther east it may take all day for the MVFR ceilings to
arrive, but they will then linger through the night. Where
clearing occurs tonight, fog development is a good bet.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS