Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 151916
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
216 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

A cooling/drying airmass will see temps fall to near freezing.
Lingering cloud and wind, however, may inhibit this fall...or
certainly the formation of frost from temps nearing freezing.
We`ll keep the inherited headline and add to it in our south per
collab with Memphis, and focus on mainly northern/western counties
that will see 32 degrees. Believe the wind/cloud further east
could hold temps in 33-34-35 range, certainly longer, there.

Dont discount light pcpn anytime from later this evening into or
thru the overnight hours...and blayer temps esp after nightfall
will mean changeover on the ptype. Lightness will preclude impacts
but will run with these either/or chances overnight.

Tmrw look for gradual improvement as the upper Low moves east.
We`ll still be in the cold/dry northwest flow, so another day of
below normal temps is expected. Finally high pressure works in
tmrw night, but the resultant drop off in wind/sky will likely mean
another headline night, this time for frost, as temps fall into
the 30s again.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Above average confidence in much of the extended forecast, except
for the timing of precipitation next weekend.

The period starts out with a mid level shortwave and associated
surface low moving from Iowa into the Great Lakes region. This will
lead to a cold front moving through our area on Wednesday. With
little in the way of moisture return from the Gulf, not expecting
much if any measurable rain this far south. In fact, most 12z models
have backed off on what little precipitation they had shown
previously. So kept with a dry forecast for now. The warmest day of
the week does look to be on Wednesday, with highs into the low to
mid 70s, which is near to slightly above normal.

Northerly winds will usher in a cooler airmass yet again Wednesday
night through the end of the week. Coolest readings look to be
Thursday into Thursday night, when highs struggle to reach 60 in
many locations, and lows look to dip into the 30s. With clear skies
and lighter winds, may even be some frost Friday morning,
particularly up along the I-64 corridor. Temperatures will moderate
some by the weekend, but are still expected to be below normal for
this time of year.

An upper level low is forecast to come ashore into California
Wednesday night and progress eastward through the end of the week.
This feature will lead to our next good rain chance, sometime next
weekend. The 12z GFS remains a faster outlier bringing in rain as
early as Saturday morning in the west. The 12z GEFS mean isn`t that
much slower though. The 00z ECMWF and 12z Canadian models are in
fairly good agreement, waiting until late Saturday night into
Sunday. The GFS does tend to be too fast with the progression of
systems the further out in time you go. So siding with the slower
solution for now, with highest PoPs on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Satellite and latest model trends suggest cigs will linger thru
the package, ranging from MVFR to low VFR. Some improvement,
however, should be noted tmrw/during the planning period, as drier
air works in via continued west to northwesterly lower trop flow.
Occasional gustiness will likewise continue thru the package.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Monday for ILZ075>078-
     080>086-088-089-092.

MO...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Monday for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>111.

IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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