Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 151103
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
603 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Update for 12z aviation only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

The upper-level low continues to push eastward along the IA/MO
border and that has resulted in development of showers mainly east
of the Mississippi in the last hour or two. The showers/light
rain/drizzle will slowly come to an end from west to east through
15Z. Additional QPF should be at or below a quarter inch with the
greatest amounts on the eastern border of the forecast area.

There may be a brief period of sunshine between the departing
rain/showers and the approaching low clouds associated with the
storm system passing north of our region today. The 00Z models
continue to develop some widely scattered light showers over much
of the area east of the Mississippi River this afternoon into this
evening. QPF is virtually nil so there will be little impact.

00Z NAM soundings in particular were a bit alarming tonight. They
are not quite saturated, but if they were to saturate they would
potentially support snow. I really wish winter would go away. We
hang onto small PoPs in the far east after 06Z tonight, which is
likely too long, and given the deep and strong cold advection we
will have to mention snow showers tonight. No QPF so no impact is
expected and it may not last that late into the night.

Otherwise for today, with mostly cloudy skies and a stiff
westerly breeze, temperatures will have a hard time reaching 50
over most of the area. Tried to lean toward the cold side of
guidance, as the consensus of 00Z guidance seems too warm for
highs today. Some locations will be nearly 20 degrees below
normal!

The strong low-level cold advection will continue tonight as
northwest winds continue to gust some through the night,
especially in the north. Much of the area will be near the
freezing mark by sunrise Monday morning and the forecast is
trending colder, such that the entire area may eventually drop
below freezing. The winds will preclude frost development except
in extremely sheltered areas.

For now will issue a Freeze Warning tonight for the northern 5
counties in southeast Missouri and much of southern Illinois. The
area is roughly aligned with the 03Z SREF`s 80% probability of
surface temperatures dropping below freezing. These areas are the
most likely to drop to 30 degrees or lower. The Warning is
intended to be a first iteration. If guidance continues to trend
colder, much if not all of the remaining area may need to be added
by the day shift.

Northwest winds may gust up to 30 mph at times Monday, and clouds
may linger in the northeast for much of the day. It will be
another cool day, especially in the northeast, but even the
southwest with some sunshine will only get into the middle 50s.

The surface high will settle over the region late Monday and
Monday night so winds will die off and skies will be clear.
Guidance has trended several degrees cooler for lows Monday night
and now the northern half of the area is right near freezing.
Widespread frost is likely over much of the area and a Frost
Advisory will likely be needed.

Tuesday and Tuesday night will see a warm front move through the
region, as a storm system moves east through the central and
northern Plains. This will result in a rebound back toward normal
temperatures Tuesday and above normal warmth Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

fairly high confidence in the extended as models are in fairly good
agreement. There is some doubt with rain chances Wednesday and start
time of rain chances Saturday. Other than that very similar
scenario among model solutions.

First of all a warm front will lift through the area during the day
Wednesday. This will bring temperatures above normal Wednesday. A
cold front will follow in its wake bringing another shot of cooler
air to the region. In fact we could see some scattered frost up
along the interstate 64 corridor in addition to protected areas
farther south. As the cold front pushes through some of the models
try to produce some light rain...mainly east of the Pennyrile
parkway in West Kentucky and the Wabash River Valley in southwest
Indiana. However the signal is very weak and little if any impact is
expected with this system. However this system will drive
temperatures back down to normal or below normal slightly. For the
weekend system the GFS is bringing in rain chances Saturday while
the ECMWF is holding off chances until early Sunday. This is very
typical of the two models and the GFS does tend to be faster than
reality...especially the farther out in time we observe their
solutions. Typically they will come into much better agreement as we
approach the weekend. With that in mind I would still expect a good
chance for rain by Sunday at the very least.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 559 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Kept MVFR cigs in everywhere through the valid time of tafs. Also
tempo mvfr vsby at KEVV and KOWB as rain has not moved out of
there yet but should by late morning or early afternoon. Winds
will be out of the west a very gusty today and even tonight. They
should start to lose their gusts as we approach midnight at least
at KPAH and KCGI. There will be a brief dry slot with VFR cigs at
KCGI and KPAH early this morning but wrap around should fill in
the gap rapidly.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Monday for ILZ075>078-
     080>086-088-089.

MO...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Monday for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107.

IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KH
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...KH


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