Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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460 FXUS63 KPAH 301105 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 605 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM CDT across much of the region. Areas with visibility less than a quarter of a mile have already developed this morning. - Above normal temperatures peak Wednesday and Thursday in the mid to upper 80s, with upper 70s to lower 80s forecast through early next week. - A cold front will bring the next chance for rain late Thursday into Friday. The main hazards with thunderstorms will be lightning and heavy downpours. The pattern then remains unsettled into next week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Skies are clearing this morning behind a cold front as the final round of pcpn over the Kentucky Pennyrile is now diminishing. Light winds combined with residual moisture below 950 mb in the boundary layer has allowed for areas of dense fog to develop across portions of southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. Until the shallow inversion is able to mix out with diurnal heating, dense fog will continue to be likely along with lingering low-level clouds. For this reason, have issued a Dense Fog Advisory until 9AM CDT. Contingent on how quickly skies clear, it is possible the advisory may need to be expanded east across the PAH CWA. Quasi zonal flow at the jet level today into Wednesday will allow for tranquil weather as southerly return flow at the sfc will cause maxTs to rebound back into the 80s. The only caveat is late tonight when a weak impulse may have enough 700 mb moisture to trigger a stray light shower across far NW portions of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri, but QPF only amounts to a few hundreths of an inch at most. Unseasonably warm conditions are also progged for Thursday as an upper-level ridge builds over the SE CONUS. MaxTs are progged to rise into the mid to upper 80s, and it is possible a few locations could near 90 degrees as model soundings show deep mixing extending into a dry layer above 850 mb. Conditions will also be breezy with south winds as the pressure gradient tightens. By late Thursday into Thursday evening, the aformentioned ridge begins to move east of the FA as a trough digs across the northern Plains. Southern stream energy lifts north Thursday night providing forcing for ascent for showers and thunderstorms through much of Friday as a cold front slowly approaches from the west. 0-1km MLCAPE looks to be modest at best, and the shear is very meager favoring lightning and heavy downpours being the main concern with storms. Even with fropa on Friday, maxTs will still be a bit above normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The weekend into early next week remains a bit unsettled as a frontal boundary remains nearby with multiple southern stream impulses in the mid-levels. Confidence is not the greatest on timing as the NBM has chance PoPs progged through most of the period due to model blends, but would expect some dry intervals to be mixed in with breaks of sun. MaxTs are progged to remain in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s as it will certainly feel a lot like summer. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 LIFR/IFR conditions due to areas of dense fog this morning will diminish through 13z. Some low cigs may linger a bit longer at KEVV/KOWB, but should scatter out after 14z. Mainly sunny skies with VFR conditions are then expected this afternoon into tonight with light & variable winds. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ076-086- 087-100-107>112-114. IN...None. KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KYZ001>009. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...DW